105
AXPZ20 KNHC 201605
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU FEB 20 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: N GALE FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH SAT MORNING AS A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN A COLD FRONT IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF AMERICA, AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. STRONG GALES WILL OCCUR TODAY THROUGH FRI
MORNING. PEAK SEAS TO 16 FT ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE SAT
MORNING, WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING BY SAT NIGHT.
FOR DETAILS, PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS AND
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT THE WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES_EASTPAC.PHP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N124W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 06N124W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 05N TO 09N EAST OF 89W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
REGARDING THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 36.5N134W AND
RIDGING EXTENDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS, AND A
1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
FARTHER EAST, TROUGHING EXTENDS OVER WESTERN MEXICO. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH
N TO NW WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT NORTH OF PUNTA
EUGENIA. OTHERWISE, MODERATE N TO NW WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT
PREVAIL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, WITH GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NW WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS WILL OCCUR NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA THROUGH FRI MORNING.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS WILL OCCUR OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH SAT.
LOOKING AHEAD, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SUN IN
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AS STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS
BETWEEN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
TROUGHING IN WESTERN MEXICO.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOWS FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NE TO E WINDS OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE SW TO W WINDS AND SEAS OF 3
TO 6 FT ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FT NORTH OF THE TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL
OCCUR IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH SUN AS LOW PRESSURE
PREVAILS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED EACH NIGHT AND MORNING, AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL
OCCUR NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM OF THESE WINDS. FRESH N WINDS WILL
OCCUR WELL OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA THROUGH FRI MORNING, GENERATED
BY GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ROUGH SEAS OF 8
TO 11 FT WILL OCCUR IN THIS REGION THROUGH EARLY SAT. ELSEWHERE,
WINDS WILL PULSE TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA EACH NIGHT AND MORNING TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AMERICA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 36.5N134W AND
RIDGING EXTENDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC, AND A 1013
MB LOW IS CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT NORTH
OF 27N AND EAST OF 130W. MODERATE N TO NE WINDS ARE NOTED NORTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ, AND LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS ARE
OBSERVED FROM 09N TO 25N AND WEST OF 130W. SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT IN
MIXED NW AND E SWELL, GENERATED BY E TRADE WINDS, ARE NOTED NORTH
OF 05N AND WEST OF 125W. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ,
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE SE WINDS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF 27N AND EAST OF 130W THROUGH FRI MORNING.
MIXED NW AND W SWELL WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 05N AND
WEST OF 120W THROUGH FRI BEFORE SEAS DIMINISH INTO THIS WEEKEND.
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL BE SEEN FROM 05N TO 15N
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE N TO NE WINDS
NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ, WITH LOCALLY FRESH WINDS
OCCURRING FROM 05N TO 25N WEST OF 120W. LOOKING AHEAD, A LONG-
PERIOD NW SWELL WILL LEAD TO ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF
130W BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ADAMS
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