853
AXPZ20 KNHC 210915
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI FEB 21 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0855 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NE
MEXICO FORCES STRONG TO GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF WATERS AND SHOWED STRONG TO NEAR
GALE-FORCE N-NE WINDS. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SAT MORNING. PEAK SEAS TO 17 FT ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND
DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW
STRONG FORCE AND SEAS BELOW 8 FT BY SUN MORNING.
FOR DETAILS, PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS AND
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT THE WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES_EASTPAC.PHP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN COSTA RICA NEAR 09N84W
TO 02N109W AND TO 05N127W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 05N127W AND
TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM
06N TO 11N AND BETWEEN 117W AND 125W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
REGARDING THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR 34N132W EXTENDS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS DEPICTED MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
NW WINDS IN THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE, ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 6-9 FT. OUTSIDE
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT IN THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN
OFFSHORE WATERS, INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NW WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS WILL OCCUR NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA THROUGH THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE NW WINDS WILL OCCUR
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
INTO SAT. LOOKING AHEAD, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SAT NIGHT IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AS A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND TROUGHING IN WESTERN MEXICO.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1042 MB HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE
DEEP TROPICS RESULT IN FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNSTREAM WATERS TO 89W. SEAS IN
THESE WATERS ARE 4-7 FT. FARTHER WEST, MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS TO 10 FT ARE FOUND IN THE FAR OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUATEMALA DUE TO THE GAP WIND EVENT OCCURRING IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL
OCCUR IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH SUN NIGHT DUE TO A STRONG
RIDGE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED EACH NIGHT AND MORNING, AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL
OCCUR NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM OF THESE WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH N
WINDS WILL OCCUR WELL OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA THROUGH THIS MORNING,
GENERATED BY GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ROUGH
SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT WILL OCCUR IN THIS REGION THROUGH EARLY SAT.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL PULSE TO MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG
SPEEDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA EACH NIGHT AND MORNING TONIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
EASTERN PACIFIC SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AND WEST OF 120W. THIS WAS
CAPTURED BY RECENT SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA. SEAS IN THESE
WATERS ARE 6-9 FT. FARTHER EAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE-E
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND NORTH OF 08N AND EAST OF 102W
IN ASSOCIATION WITH DOWNSTREAM WINDS FROM THE GAP WIND EVENT
OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF 20N AND EAST OF 130W THROUGH FRI MORNING.
MIXED NW AND W SWELL WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 05N AND
WEST OF 130W THROUGH FRI BEFORE SEAS DIMINISH INTO THIS WEEKEND.
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL BE SEEN FROM 05N TO 15N AND
AS FAR WEST AS 110W INTO THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, RIDGING
EXTENDING THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ, WITH
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS OCCURRING FROM 05N TO 25N WEST OF 120W.
LOOKING AHEAD, A LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL LEAD TO ROUGH SEAS
NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 130W BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DELGADO
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