233
AXPZ20 KNHC 220905
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT FEB 22 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0855 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER NE TEXAS FORCES STRONG TO GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS
CAPTURED GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE LATER THIS MORNING. ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS, PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS AND
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT THE WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES_EASTPAC.PHP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 05N105W AND TO
06N123W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 126W, SOUTH OF 12N. THE
ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 06N129W TO BEYOND 06N140W. ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED NORTH OF 02N AND EAST OF 85W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 06N TO 20N AND WEST OF 121W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
REGARDING THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN DOMINATES THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE
WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-8 FT ARE
FOUND THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS OCCURRING NORTHWEST OF GUADALUPE ISLAND. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED LIGHT TO MODERATE NW WINDS
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 1-3 FT. OUTSIDE
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT IN THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN
OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO MON NIGHT IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DUE TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS TO 5 FT WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
WINDS. LOOKING AHEAD, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS AND NW
SWELL WILL AFFECT THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
MON NIGHT INTO WED, WITH SEAS PEAKING NEAR 10 FT. THE DECAYING
SWELL WILL SPREAD INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WATERS LATE IN THE
WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A 1035 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
FORCES FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IN THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNSTREAM TO 91W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 6-9
FT. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. SEAS IN THE AREA DESCRIBED
ARE 3-6 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING FRESH TO LOCALLY NEAR GALE-FORCE NE TO
E WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH SUN NIGHT
DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT AND MORNING, AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
OCCUR NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM OF THESE WINDS. STRONG TO GALE-FORCE
GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SEAS IN
THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA THROUGH SUN. ELSEWHERE,
WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG SPEEDS IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA EACH NIGHT AND MORNING TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR 32N132W EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN WATERS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WEST OF 120W AND SOUTH OF 20N. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AND WEST OF 105W.
SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 6-8 FT. FARTHER EAST, MODERATE TO FRESH
NE-E WINDS AND 6-9 FT SEAS ARE FOUND NORTH OF 05N AND EAST OF
105W IN ASSOCIATION WITH DOWNSTREAM WINDS FROM THE GAP WIND EVENT
OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL IN THE WESTERN TRADE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY GAP WINDS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE FROM 05N
TO 15N AND AS FAR WEST AS 110W THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT NW
SWELL EVENT WILL REACH THE NW WATERS ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY
SPREAD EASTWARD. BY MIDWEEK, A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW
WATERS, PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS INTO LATE IN THE WEEK.
DELGADO
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