153
AXPZ20 KNHC 171610
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAR 17 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO EASTERN MEXICO, GALE FORCE WINDS TO 40 KT
WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO EARLY TUE. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS MORNING AND REACH NEAR 20 FT LATER
TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY TUE NIGHT, BUT MORE GALE-FORCE
GAP WINDS MAY RETURN THU AND THU NIGHT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N80W TO 02N100W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 02N100W TO 00N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N122W EXTENDS RIDGING THROUGH THE
OFFSHORE WATERS, WITH MODERATE N WINDS EXTENDING THROUGH THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL EXTENDS ROUGH
SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT THROUGH THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SOUTHWARD TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. FARTHER SOUTH, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT PREVAIL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND SW MEXICO WILL SUBSIDE TODAY, BUT BE REINFORCED
TONIGHT INTO TUE AS ADDITIONAL SWELL ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
THIS COULD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT,
AND BRING SOME FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND IT THAT WILL
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA AND IN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA INTO WED. SEAS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA MAY BUILD TO
AS HIGH AS 12 TO 15 FT TUE AND TUE NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
LIGHT TO ENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT DOMINATE THE REGION
AS TRANQUIL WEATHER GENERALLY PREVAILS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE DEVELOPING
THIS MORNING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, AND THESE WINDS WILL PULSE
THROUGH THE WEEK, INCREASING TO STRONG STARTING TONIGHT. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT. ROUGH
SEAS GENERATED BY GALES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL MOVE INTO
THE WATERS WELL OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA THROUGH TUE AND AGAIN
STARTING THU NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N122W EXTENDS RIDGING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
NE TO E WINDS ARE NOTED FROM 03N TO 19N, W OF ABOUT 115W, ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS, EXTENDING FROM 30N132W TO 26N140W, AND
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED NORTH
OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE, SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT EXTEND THROUGH MOST
OF THE WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ. OTHERWISE, GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS
OF 4 TO 7 FT ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS INTO TUE, LEADING TO FRESH NE WINDS
NORTH OF 25N. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FRONT
AND RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
FRESH NE TO E WINDS FROM 05N TO 25N, GENERALLY WEST OF 115W
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK,
AND PEAK SEAS OF 12 TO 14 FT ARE LIKELY NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 120W
AND 140W THROUGH TUE. ELSEWHERE, ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY GALE
FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH
AS 05N AND TO 110W THROUGH MID WEEK.
KONARIK
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