370
AXPZ20 KNHC 171618 AAA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAR 17 2025
UPDATED FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO EASTERN MEXICO, GALE FORCE WINDS TO 45 KT
WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO EARLY TUE. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS MORNING AND REACH NEAR 20 FT LATER
TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY TUE NIGHT, BUT MORE GALE-FORCE
GAP WINDS MAY RETURN THU AND THU NIGHT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06.5N77W TO 03N79W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 00N100W TO 00N120W, CONTINUING SOUTHWESTWARD
SOUTH OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND
ECUADOR.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, AND ON GALE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE THU THROUGH EARLY FRI.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA EXTENDS A
RIDGE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. OUTSIDE OF THE TEHUANTEPEC
REGION, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER, EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH
OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. SEAS ARE 7 TO 10 FT IN DECAYING
NW SWELL OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND 4 TO 7 FT ELSEWHERE IN
MIXED SWELL. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, SEAS ARE 3 FT OR LESS IN
THE NORTH, AND 2 TO 4 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE ONGOING GALE WARNING AND GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, ROUGH SEAS IN NW
SWELL OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SW MEXICO WILL SUBSIDE TODAY,
BUT BE REINFORCED TONIGHT INTO TUE AS ADDITIONAL SWELL ARRIVES
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN WATERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND BRING SOME FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS
BEHIND IT THAT WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA AND IN
PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO WED. SEAS OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA MAY BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 12 TO 15 FT TUE AND TUE NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION
AND THE GULF OF PANAMA EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH WINDS MODERATE
OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE. SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFFSHORE COSTA
RICA SOUTHWARD.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO WILL PULSE THROUGH THE WEEK, INCREASING TO STRONG
STARTING TONIGHT, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT. ROUGH
SEAS GENERATED BY GALES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL MOVE
INTO THE WATERS WELL OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA THROUGH TUE AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN STARTING THU NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM OFFSHORE
ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BY MID-WEEK IN SOUTHERLY SWELL.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM 30N127W TO
25N140W WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS IN NW
SWELL BEHIND IT, 8 TO 13 FT WITH THE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
30N. A WEAK HIGH AND NE TO SW RIDGE ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM
AROUND 02N TO 24N AND WEST OF 130W, AND ALSO FROM 02N TO 20N
BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS. SEAS ARE 7 TO 10 FT IN DECAYING
SWELL ELSEWHERE WEST OF 110W, AND 4 TO 7 FT EAST OF 110W, EXCEPT
3 TO 5 FT EAST OF 95W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS INTO TUE, LEADING TO FRESH NE WINDS
NORTH OF 25N. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FRONT
AND RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
FRESH NE TO E WINDS FROM 05N TO 25N, GENERALLY WEST OF 115W
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK,
AND PEAK SEAS OF 12 TO 14 FT ARE LIKELY NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 120W
AND 140W THROUGH TUE. ELSEWHERE, ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY GALE
FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH
AS 05N AND TO 110W THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF THESE SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
LEWITSKY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page