860
AXPZ20 KNHC 172102
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAR 17 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO EARLY TUE. SEAS ARE PEAKING AROUND 20 FT
THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY TUE AND
TUE NIGHT, BUT MORE GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS MAY RETURN THU THROUGH
EARLY FRI MORNING. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW COLOMBIA NEAR 06.5N77.5W TO
04N79.5W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N79.5W TO 00N120W TO 00N120W
THEN CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE DISCUSSION
WATERS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO
07N BETWEEN 77W AND 84W, FROM 00N TO 07N BETWEEN 85W AND 98W, AND
FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 97W AND 104W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, AND ON GALE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE THU THROUGH EARLY FRI.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
OUTSIDE OF THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER,
EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE PER RECENT
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT IN DECAYING NW
SWELL OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND 4 TO 7 FT ELSEWHERE IN MIXED
SWELL. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, SEAS ARE 3 FT OR LESS IN THE
NORTH, AND 2 TO 4 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE ONGOING GALE WARNING AND GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS IN NW SWELL OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SW MEXICO WILL
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING, BUT WILL QUICKLY BE REINFORCED LATER TONIGHT
INTO TUE AS ADDITIONAL SWELL ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT, AND BRING SOME
FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND IT THAT WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND IN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO
WED, THEN PERSISTING IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH
THU, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS THERE. SEAS OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA MAY BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 12 TO 15 FT TUE AND TUE NIGHT.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, SUPPORTING CONTINUED
ROUGH SEAS THERE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION, WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE PER RECENT
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE, EXCEPT
LOCALLY ROUGH WELL OFFSHORE WESTERN GUATEMALA DUE TO A GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFFSHORE COSTA RICA SOUTHWARD.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, NEAR GALE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUILDING SEAS TO ROUGH.
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS WILL PULSE FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA
THROUGH THE AZUERO PENINSULA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
SEAS LOCALLY ROUGH AT TIMES. ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY GALES IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS WELL OFFSHORE OF
GUATEMALA THROUGH TUE AND AGAIN THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS, BUILDING IN SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM OFFSHORE ECUADOR
TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BY MID-WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM 30N124W TO
24.5N140W WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, LOCALLY STRONG, AND
BUILDING SEAS IN NW SWELL BEHIND IT, 8 TO 13 FT WITH THE HIGHEST
ALONG AND NORTH OF 30N. A WEAK HIGH AND NE TO SW RIDGE ARE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE NORTH OF THE
ITCZ FROM AROUND 05N TO 16N AND WEST OF 120W PER RECENT ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER DATA. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS. SEAS ARE 7 TO 10 FT IN DECAYING
SWELL ELSEWHERE WEST OF 110W, AND 4 TO 7 FT EAST OF 110W, EXCEPT
3 TO 5 FT EAST OF 90W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS INTO TUE, LEADING TO FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NE WINDS NORTH OF 25N. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD FRESH NE TO E WINDS FROM 05N TO 25N, GENERALLY
WEST OF 115W THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ROUGH SEAS
IN NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH
MID-WEEK, AND PEAK SEAS OF 12 TO 14 FT ARE LIKELY NORTH OF 27N
BETWEEN 120W AND 140W THROUGH TUE. ELSEWHERE, ROUGH SEAS
GENERATED BY GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL
EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS 05N AND TO 110W THROUGH MID-WEEK. ANOTHER
ROUND OF THESE SEAS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE.
LEWITSKY
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