076
AXPZ20 KNHC 180241
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAR 18 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO EARLY TUE. SEAS ARE PEAKING AROUND 20 FT
THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY TUE AND
TUE NIGHT, BUT MORE GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN
THU THROUGH FRI MORNING. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW COLOMBIA NEAR 06N78W TO
04N80W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N80W TO 00N120W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 77W AND 84W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ON GALE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE THU THROUGH EARLY FRI.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
OUTSIDE OF THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER,
EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. SEAS ARE 6
TO 9 FT IN DECAYING NW SWELL OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND 4 TO 7
FT ELSEWHERE IN MIXED SWELL. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, SEAS ARE
3 FT OR LESS IN THE NORTH, AND 2 TO 4 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE ONGOING GALE WARNING AND GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS IN NW SWELL OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SW MEXICO WILL
QUICKLY BE REINFORCED LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE AS ADDITIONAL SWELL
ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN
WATERS TONIGHT, AND BRING SOME FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND IT
THAT WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA AND IN PORTIONS OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO WED, THEN PERSIST IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH THU, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS THERE. SEAS
OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA MAY BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 12 TO 15 FT TUE
AND TUE NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, SUPPORTING
CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
FUNNELING GAP WINDS THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA, LEADING
TO FRESH TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE PAPAGAYO
REGION, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS
ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE SLIGHT TO MODERATE,
EXCEPT LOCALLY ROUGH WELL OFFSHORE WESTERN GUATEMALA DUE TO
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP WINDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE WEEK, NEAR GALE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUILDING SEAS TO ROUGH. FRESH NE WINDS
WILL PULSE FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE AZUERO PENINSULA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH SEAS LOCALLY ROUGH AT TIMES.
ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY GALES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL
IMPACT THE WATERS WELL OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA THROUGH TUE AND
AGAIN THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR
WEAKER ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS, BUILDING IN
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM OFFSHORE ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BY
MID-WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM 30N123W TO
24N140W WITH FRESH WINDS AND ROUGH, BUILDING SEAS IN NW SWELL
BEHIND IT, REACHING 12 TO 14 FT N OF 28N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W.
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND NE TO SW ORIENTED RIDGE ARE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE NORTH OF THE ITCZ
FROM AROUND 05N TO 16N AND WEST OF 120W PER RECENT ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER DATA. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS. SEAS ARE 7 TO 10 FT IN DECAYING
SWELL ELSEWHERE WEST OF 110W, AND 4 TO 7 FT EAST OF 110W, EXCEPT
3 TO 5 FT EAST OF 90W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS INTO TUE, LEADING TO FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NE WINDS NORTH OF 25N. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD FRESH NE TO E WINDS FROM 05N TO 25N, GENERALLY
WEST OF 115W THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ROUGH SEAS IN NW
SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH MID-
WEEK, AND PEAK SEAS OF 12 TO 14 FT ARE LIKELY NORTH OF 27N
BETWEEN 115W AND 135W INTO TUE. ELSEWHERE, ROUGH SEAS GENERATED
BY GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL EXTEND AS FAR
SOUTH AS 05N AND TO 110W THROUGH MID-WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF
THESE SEAS ARE POSSIBLE STARTING THU NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE.
KONARIK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page