584
AXPZ20 KNHC 181534
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAR 18 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1450 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MEXICO SUPPORTING MINIMAL GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE
IMMEDIATE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS WEAKENING AND GALE-FORCE WINDS
ARE DIMINISHING. A LARGE SURROUNDING PLUME OF FRESH TO STRONG N
TO NE WINDS EXTENDS DOWN TO NEAR 12N100W. ROUGH SEAS, UP TO
AROUND 14 FT, ARE A RESULT OF THESE WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BELOW FRESH TO STRONG THROUGH THE DAY WHILE RESIDUAL SWELL
PROPAGATES WELL SW-W AWAY FROM THE GULF.
ANOTHER GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IS FORECAST IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC LATER THIS WEEK. BY EARLY THU MORNING, JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE, FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS
NEW HIGH PRESSURE SURGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO. BY
SUNRISE THU WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH GALE-FORCE. WINDS MAY
REACH 40 TO 45 KT THU NIGHT WITH GALES FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY FRI MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO FRESH TO STRONG. SEAS MAY
BUILD AND PEAK AROUND 20 FT BY EARLY FRI. MUCH MORE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BY FRI EVENING INTO THE WEEKEND.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 03N89W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 03N89W TO 11N116W TO 02.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN 77W AND 82W, FROM
03.4S TO 00N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W, AND FROM 00N TO 02N BETWEEN
120W AND 124W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 10N
BETWEEN 103W AND 108W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON AN EXPIRING
GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, AND A NEW GALE WARNING
ALSO FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FORECAST TO COMMENCE EARLY THU.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NW MAINLAND MEXICO TO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA ON BAJA
CALIFORNIA. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT IN THE
NORTHERN GULF AND OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA. ASSOCIATED LARGE NW
SWELL, 8 TO 13 FT, ALSO FOLLOW THE FRONT, HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH
OF 30N. ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION, WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER, WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, SEAS ARE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT CURRENTLY AROUND 3
TO 6 FT, AND 3 FT OR LESS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE ENTRANCE.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE GAP WIND EVENTS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW WATERS WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY WED BEFORE DIMINISHING, WHILE THEY SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LINGERING THROUGH THU
DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS
MAY PULSE AGAIN OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, THE NW SWELL WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH FRESH SWELL FROM WINDS OFF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUSTAINING ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
AN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS FUNNELING
GAP WINDS THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA, LEADING TO STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND SEAS TO 8 FT, WITH
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AND SEAS TO 7
FT. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE SLIGHT TO
MODERATE, EXCEPT LOCALLY ROUGH WELL OFFSHORE WESTERN GUATEMALA
DUE TO DIMINISHING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION INTO THE WEEKEND, NEARING GALE-FORCE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND BUILDING SEAS TO ROUGH.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS WILL PULSE FROM THE GULF OF
PANAMA THROUGH THE AZUERO PENINSULA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
WITH SEAS LOCALLY ROUGH AT TIMES. ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY GALES
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL IMPACT THE WATERS WELL OFFSHORE
OF GUATEMALA THROUGH THE EVENING, THEN AGAIN THU NIGHT THROUGH
FRI NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS, BUILDING IN SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM OFFSHORE
ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BY MID-WEEK. SEAS MAY REACH TO
AROUND 8 FT JUST SW OF THE GALAPAGOS BY WED NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM 30N112.5W
TO 29N114W. THE FRONT IS WEAKENING AS HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE
BRIDGES ACROSS AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS
ARE FROM 20N TO 27N OR SO. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES ARE
ALSO FOUND NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 20N AND WEST OF 120W. WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WHERE A PLUME OF FRESH WINDS EXTENDS INTO THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS ARE 8 TO 12 FT IN NW SWELL ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH
OF 20N AND WEST OF 115W, 7 TO 10 FT ELSEWHERE WEST OF 115W, AND 4
TO 7 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS, EXCEPT 8 TO 11
FT IN NE SWELL FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT AND NEAR THE
PLUME OF WINDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY, DISSIPATING TONIGHT. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND RIDGING
BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD FRESH
NE TO E WINDS FROM 05N TO 25N, GENERALLY WEST OF 115W THROUGH THE
MID-WEEK. ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH MID-WEEK, AND PEAK SEAS OF AROUND 12 FT
IN THE NE WATERS CLOSER TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE, ROUGH
SEAS GENERATED BY GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS 05N AND TO 110W THROUGH MID-WEEK.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THESE SEAS ARE POSSIBLE STARTING THU NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE.
LEWITSKY
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