127
AXPZ20 KNHC 182016
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAR 18 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1940 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: ANOTHER GALE-FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT IS FORECAST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER THIS WEEK. BY
EARLY THU MORNING, JUST BEFORE SUNRISE, FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS NEW HIGH PRESSURE SURGES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO. BY SUNRISE THU WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
GALE-FORCE. WINDS MAY REACH 40 TO 45 KT THU NIGHT WITH GALES
FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRI MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
FRESH TO STRONG. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH BY
FRI EVENING. SEAS MAY BUILD AND PEAK AROUND 20 FT BY EARLY FRI.
MUCH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BY FRI EVENING INTO
THE WEEKEND. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE BORDER OF COLOMBIA AND
PANAMA AT 07.5N78W TO 07.5N86W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07.5N86W TO
02S115W TO 03.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 02N TO 07.5N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W, FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN
83W AND 90.5W, FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 104W AND 109W, FROM 03.4S
TO 01S BETWEEN 109W AND 120W, FROM 00.5N TO 03N BETWEEN 120W AND
126W, AND FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 134.5W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON A DEVELOPING
GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, FORECAST TO COMMENCE
EARLY THU.
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NW MAINLAND MEXICO TO
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO JUST SOUTH
OF PUNTA EUGENIA ON BAJA CALIFORNIA. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FOLLOW
THE FRONT IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF, AND OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PER RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA. ASSOCIATED LARGE
NW SWELL, 8 TO 14 FT, ALSO FOLLOW THE FRONT, HIGHEST ALONG AND
NORTH OF 30N. MEANWHILE, GALE-FORCE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, WITH FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS THERE NOW
EXTENDING IN A PLUME TO NEAR 12.5N97W. REMNANT SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT
COVER A LARGE AREA ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF 15N. ELSEWHERE, WINDS
ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER, WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, SEAS ARE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT CURRENTLY AROUND 3
TO 6 FT, AND 3 FT OR LESS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE ENTRANCE.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE DEVELOPING GALE WARNING IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS THERE WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT WHILE RESIDUAL ROUGH SEAS PROPAGATE WELL AWAY FROM THE
SOURCE REGION TO BEYOND THE OFFSHORE WATERS. MEANWHILE, THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE NW WATERS WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY WED BEFORE DIMINISHING, WHILE THEY SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LINGERING THROUGH THU
DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS
MAY PULSE AGAIN OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH FRESH SWELL FROM
WINDS OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUSTAINING ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
AN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS FUNNELING
GAP WINDS THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA, LEADING TO STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION PER EARLIER ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS, WITH SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA PER ASCAT DATA, WITH
SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE. SEAS
ARE SLIGHT TO MODERATE, EXCEPT LOCALLY ROUGH WELL OFFSHORE
WESTERN GUATEMALA DUE TO DIMINISHING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP
WINDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, NEARING GALE-
FORCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND BUILDING
SEAS TO ROUGH AT TIMES. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS
WILL PULSE FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE AZUERO PENINSULA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH SEAS LOCALLY ROUGH AT TIMES.
ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY GALES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL
IMPACT THE WATERS WELL OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA THROUGH THE EVENING,
THEN AGAIN THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE
OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS, BUILDING IN
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM OFFSHORE ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BY
MID-WEEK. SEAS MAY REACH TO AROUND 8 FT JUST SW OF THE GALAPAGOS
BY WED THROUGH EARLY THU.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 27.5N113.5W TO 23N127W. FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS ARE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS FROM 04N TO
28N WEST OF 115W PER RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA, AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHERE A
PLUME OF FRESH WINDS EXTENDS INTO THE OPEN WATERS. SEAS ARE 8 TO
12 FT IN NW SWELL ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF
115W PER ALTIMETER DATA, 7 TO 11 FT ELSEWHERE WEST OF 115W, AND
4 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS, EXCEPT 8 TO 11
FT IN NE SWELL FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT AND NEAR THE
PLUME OF WINDS OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 05N BETWEEN 93W AND 106W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS AS IT DISSIPATES TONIGHT. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND RIDGING
BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD FRESH
NE TO E WINDS FROM ROUGHLY 05N TO 25N, GENERALLY WEST OF 115W
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK. ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH MID-WEEK, AND PEAK SEAS OF
AROUND 12 FT IN THE NE WATERS CLOSER TO BAJA CALIFORNIA.
ELSEWHERE, ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS 05N AND TO 110W
THROUGH MID-WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF THESE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE STARTING THU NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
AND OTHERWISE.
LEWITSKY
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