641
AXPZ20 KNHC 190241
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAR 19 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH EASTERN MEXICO WED NIGHT INTO THU, AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE WILL LEAD TO GALE FORCE GAP WINDS
FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY THU THROUGH EARLY
FRI. WINDS MAY REACH 40 TO 45 KT THU NIGHT AND ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH TO FRESH TO STRONG BY FRI NIGHT. SEAS MAY REACH 20 FT
BY EARLY FRI. MUCH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO
THE WEEKEND. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N86W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 08N86W TO 00N115W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W, FROM
03N TO 08N BETWEEN 83W AND 90W, FROM 00N TO 03N BETWEEN 120W AND
126W, AND FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 134W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON A DEVELOPING
GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAD BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND ADJACENT BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING. IN ITS WAKE, SOME FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS STILL PERSIST
IN OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 24N AS WELL AS IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ROUGH SEAS DOMINATE WATERS OFFSHORE
BAJA CALIFORNIA, WITH SEAS OF 12 TO 14 FT IN NW SWELL N OF 23N.
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, SEAS ARE 3 TO 6 FT. SOME FRESH WINDS
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, OTHERWISE
ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE MODERATE OR LESS. ROUGH SEAS FROM THE EARLIER
TEHUANTEPEC GALE ARE DECAYING WELL OFFSHORE SW MEXICO, WITH THE
REMAINING WATERS HAVING SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY WED, THEN PULSE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. SIMILAR WINDS WILL SPREAD S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHER
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THU DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
MEANWHILE, NW SWELL WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MID- WEEK,
WITH FRESH SWELL FROM WINDS OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUSTAINING
ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
AN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS FUNNELING
GAP WINDS THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA, LEADING TO FRESH
LOCALLY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION AS WELL AS THE GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE SLIGHT TO MODERATE, EXCEPT
LOCALLY ROUGH WELL OFFSHORE WESTERN GUATEMALA DUE TO DIMINISHING
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WINDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION INTO THE WEEKEND, NEARING GALE-FORCE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND BUILDING SEAS TO ROUGH AT
TIMES. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL PULSE FROM THE
GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE AZUERO PENINSULA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK, WITH SEAS LOCALLY ROUGH AT TIMES. ROUGH SEAS GENERATED
BY GALES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL IMPACT THE WATERS WELL
OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA TONIGHT, THEN AGAIN THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT SW OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, WHERE BUILDING
S SWELL MAY LEAD TO SEAS AROUND 8 FT WED INTO THU.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE NE WATERS HAS DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING. N OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING TO 28N, AND W OF 115W,
WIDESPREAD FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS DOMINATE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. S AND E OF THIS REGION, WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER. SEAS ARE 8 TO 11 FT IN THE REGION OF FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS, WITH SOME 12 FT SEAS N OF 24N AND E OF
123W. ELSEWHERE, SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT, EXCEPT IN A ZONE N OF 05N
AND E OF 108W, WHERE A PLUME OF DECAYING 8 TO 10 FT SEAS
GENERATED BY EARLIER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALES IS PROPAGATING SW.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND
RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE N WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD FRESH NE TO
E WINDS FROM ROUGHLY 05N TO 25N, GENERALLY WEST OF 115W THROUGH
WED NIGHT. ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE OPEN WATERS INTO THU. ELSEWHERE, ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY
GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL EXTEND AS FAR
SOUTH AS 05N AND TO 110W THROUGH WED. ANOTHER ROUND OF THESE
SEAS IS POSSIBLE STARTING THU NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE.
KONARIK
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