617
AXPZ20 KNHC 190808
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAR 19 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH EASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT INTO THU, AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS WAKE WILL LEAD TO GALE FORCE GAP WINDS FUNNELING
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY THU THROUGH EARLY FRI. WINDS
MAY REACH 40 TO 45 KT THU NIGHT AND ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO
FRESH TO STRONG BY FRI NIGHT. SEAS MAY REACH 20 FT BY EARLY FRI.
MUCH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N86W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 08N86W TO 00N130W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W, FROM 03N TO 08N
BETWEEN 83W AND 90W, AND FROM 00N TO 03N BETWEEN 120W AND 126W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WITH FRESH NE
WINDS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA. ROUGH SEAS DOMINATE THESE AREAS,
WITH SOME SEAS OF 12 TO 14 FT OCCURRING OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA,
ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE PUNTA EUGENIA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE
OR LESS, WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT. THE EXCEPTION IS NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES, WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
INDUCING SOME LOCALLY FRESH NW BREEZES.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING, THEN PULSE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. SIMILAR WINDS WILL SPREAD S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THU DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
MEANWHILE, NW SWELL WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS
INTO LATE WEEK, WITH FRESH SWELL FROM WINDS OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA SUSTAINING ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS FUNNELING
GAP WINDS THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA, LEADING TO FRESH
LOCALLY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION AS WELL AS THE GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS ARE MODERATE
OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE SLIGHT TO MODERATE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION THE THE WEEKEND, NEARING GALE-FORCE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND BUILDING SEAS TO ROUGH AT
TIMES. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL PULSE FROM THE
GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE AZUERO PENINSULA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK, WITH SEAS LOCALLY ROUGH AT TIMES. ROUGH SEAS GENERATED
BY GALES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL IMPACT THE WATERS WELL
OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT
SW OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, WHERE BUILDING S SWELL MAY LEAD TO
SEAS AROUND 8 FT INTO THU.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE
AREA AND THE ITCZ IS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD FRESH WITH LOCALLY
STRONG TRADEWINDS FROM 05N TO 28N W OF 115W, WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 11
FT. TO THE S AND E OF THIS AREA, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MAINLY 4 TO 7 FT SEAS DOMINATE. DECAYING NE SWELL FROM EARLIER
GALES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS CAUSING AN AREA OF 8 TO 10 FT
SEAS FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 96W AND 108W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX
INTO THU, ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH INTO
THE WEEKEND. ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU. ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER ROUND OF ROUGH
SEAS GENERATED BY GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL IMPACT WATERS N OF 05N AND E OF 110W THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI
NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE.
KONARIK
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