769
AXPZ20 KNHC 191448
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAR 19 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1420 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH EASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT INTO THU, AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS WAKE WILL LEAD TO GALE FORCE GAP WINDS FUNNELING
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY THU THROUGH EARLY FRI. WINDS
MAY REACH 40 TO 45 KT THU NIGHT AND ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO
FRESH TO STRONG BY FRI NIGHT. SEAS MAY REACH 20 FT BY EARLY FRI.
MUCH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE BORDER OF PANAMA AND
COLOMBIA AT 08N78W TO 06.5N86W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06.5N86W TO
00N110W TO 01.5S120W, THEN CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE DISCUSSION
WATERS REACHING BACK TO 00N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 05.5N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W, FROM 02S TO 01N
BETWEEN 94W AND 100W, FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 100W AND 107W, AND
FROM 01N TO 05N BETWEEN 130W AND 138W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WITH FRESH NE
WINDS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA. ROUGH SEAS DOMINATE THESE AREAS,
WITH SOME SEAS OF 12 TO 13 FT OCCURRING OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA, HIGHEST OFFSHORE BETWEEN CABO SAN LAZARO AND PUNTA
EUGENIA PER RECENT ALTIMETER DATA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE
OR LESS, WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT, WITH 1 TO 3 FT IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, FRESH WINDS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING, THEN PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG NEAR SHORE NORTH OF
CABO SAN LAZARO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THU DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. MEANWHILE, NW
SWELL WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS INTO LATE
WEEK, WITH FRESH SWELL FROM WINDS OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SUSTAINING ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS FUNNELING
GAP WINDS THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA, LEADING TO FRESH
LOCALLY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION AS WELL AS THE GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS ARE MODERATE
OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE SLIGHT TO MODERATE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION THE THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
NEARING GALE-FORCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS,
AND BUILDING SEAS TO ROUGH AT TIMES. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N
TO NE WINDS WILL PULSE FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE AZUERO
PENINSULA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH SEAS LOCALLY ROUGH
AT TIMES. ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY GALES IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL IMPACT THE WATERS WELL OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA
LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR
WEAKER ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT SW OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, WHERE BUILDING S SWELL MAY LEAD TO SEAS AROUND
8 FT INTO THU.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THE ITCZ IS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD FRESH WITH LOCALLY
STRONG TRADEWINDS FROM 05N TO 25N TO THE WEST OF 115W, WITH SEAS
OF 7 TO 11 FT. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS AREA, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MAINLY 4 TO 7 FT SEAS DOMINATE, AS WELL AS NORTH
OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 125W. DECAYING NE SWELL FROM EARLIER GALES
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS CAUSING AN AREA OF 8 TO 10 FT SEAS
FROM 03N TO 14N BETWEEN 92W AND 110W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX
INTO THU, ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH INTO
THE WEEKEND. ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU. ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER ROUND OF ROUGH
SEAS GENERATED BY GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL IMPACT WATERS NORTH OF 05N AND EAST OF 110W THU NIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AND
OTHERWISE. LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
30N140W EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF IT AND
LARGE SEAS BEHIND IT.
LEWITSKY
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