623
AXPZ20 KNHC 192052
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAR 19 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH EASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT INTO THU, AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS WAKE WILL LEAD TO GALE FORCE GAP WINDS FUNNELING
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY THU
THROUGH EARLY FRI. WINDS MAY REACH 40 TO 45 KT THU NIGHT AND ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO FRESH TO STRONG BY FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS
MAY REACH TO AROUND 20 FT BY EARLY FRI. MUCH MORE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM PANAMA NEAR 07.5N80W TO 05.5N86W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05.5N86W TO 00N110W TO 01.5S120W TO BEYOND
01N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00N
TO 07N BETWEEN 87W AND 92W, FROM 02S TO 02N BETWEEN 94W AND
100W, FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 101W AND 106W, AND FROM 00.5N TO
05N BETWEEN 130W AND 139W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEADING TO FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
PER RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE
WINDS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA. ROUGH SEAS DOMINATE THESE AREAS,
WITH SOME SEAS UP TO 12 FT OCCURRING OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA,
HIGHEST OFFSHORE BETWEEN CABO SAN LAZARO AND PUNTA EUGENIA PER
RECENT ALTIMETER DATA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR LESS,
WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT, WITH 1 TO 3 FT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, MODERATE TO FRESH OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG NEAR SHORE NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU DUE TO A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. MEANWHILE, NW SWELL WILL SPREAD TOWARD
THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS INTO LATE WEEK, WITH FRESH SWELL FROM
WINDS OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUSTAINING ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS MAY PULSE TO FRESH NEAR CABO CORRIENTES LATE
WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH N WINDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC LATE TUE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS FUNNELING
GAP WINDS THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA, LEADING TO FRESH
LOCALLY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION AS WELL AS
THE GULF OF PANAMA PER RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS ARE
5 TO 8 FT IN THOSE AREAS. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE
WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT NEAR 8 FT JUST SW OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED
OFFSHORE SOUTHERN COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
NEARING GALE-FORCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS,
AND BUILDING SEAS TO ROUGH AT TIMES. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO
NE WINDS WILL PULSE FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE AZUERO
PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY SAT, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES.
ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY GALES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL
IMPACT THE WATERS WELL OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA LATE THU NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE
WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT SW OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS,
WHERE BUILDING S SWELL MAY LEAD TO SEAS AROUND 8 FT INTO THU.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THE ITCZ IS LEADING TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
TRADEWINDS FROM 05N TO 23N TO THE WEST OF 115W, WITH SEAS OF 7
TO 11 FT. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE, WITH SEAS OF 4
TO 7 FT. DECAYING NE SWELL FROM EARLIER GALES IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC IS CAUSING AN AREA OF 8 TO 10 FT SEAS FROM 02N TO
14N BETWEEN 96W AND 111W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX
INTO THU, ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH INTO
THE WEEKEND. ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU. ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER ROUND OF ROUGH
SEAS GENERATED BY GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL IMPACT WATERS NORTH OF 05N AND EAST OF 110W THU NIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AND
OTHERWISE. LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
30N140W EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF IT AND
LARGE SEAS BEHIND IT.
LEWITSKY
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