618
AXPZ20 KNHC 200227
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAR 20 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH EASTERN MEXICO INTO THU, AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE WILL LEAD TO GALE FORCE GAP WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY THU THROUGH EARLY
FRI. WINDS MAY REACH 40 TO 45 KT THU NIGHT AND ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH TO FRESH TO STRONG BY FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS MAY REACH TO
AROUND 20 FT BY EARLY FRI. MUCH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N80W TO 05N86W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 05N86W TO 00N110W TO 00N120W TO BEYOND 01N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00N TO 07N BETWEEN
87W AND 92W AND FROM 00N TO 05N BETWEEN 130W AND 139W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH NE WINDS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA. ROUGH SEAS DOMINATE
THESE AREAS, HIGHEST OFFSHORE BETWEEN CABO SAN LAZARO AND PUNTA
EUGENIA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR LESS, WITH SEAS OF 3
TO 6 FT, WITH 1 TO 3 FT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, FRESH WINDS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU DUE TO
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. MEANWHILE, NW SWELL WILL SPREAD TOWARD
THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH FRESH SWELL
FROM WINDS OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUSTAINING ROUGH SEAS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS MAY PULSE TO FRESH NEAR CABO CORRIENTES
LATE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH N WINDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE TUE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS FUNNELING
GAP WINDS THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA, LEADING TO FRESH
LOCALLY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION AS WELL AS
THE GULF OF PANAMA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT IN THOSE AREAS. WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS,
EXCEPT NEAR 8 FT JUST SW OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, NEARING GALE-FORCE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND BUILDING SEAS TO ROUGH
AT TIMES. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL PULSE FROM
THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE AZUERO PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY
SAT, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES. ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY
GALES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL IMPACT THE WATERS WELL
OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL
BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS,
EXCEPT SW OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, WHERE BUILDING S SWELL MAY
LEAD TO SEAS AROUND 8 FT TONIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THE ITCZ IS LEADING TO FRESH TRADEWINDS FROM 05N
TO 23N TO THE WEST OF 115W, WITH SEAS OF 7 TO 11 FT. WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE, WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX
THU, ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU. ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER ROUND OF ROUGH SEAS
GENERATED BY GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL
IMPACT WATERS NORTH OF 05N AND EAST OF 110W THU NIGHT INTO SAT.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE. LOOKING AHEAD,
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH 30N140W EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF IT AND LARGE SEAS BEHIND IT.
KONARIK
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