978
AXPZ20 KNHC 201531
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAR 20 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SURGING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT HAS
INITIATED GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
WINDS MAY PEAK TO 40 KT, OR SLIGHTER HIGHER TONIGHT. THE CULPRIT
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO SLACKEN BY FRI AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS.
SEAS MAY POSSIBLY REACH TO AROUND 20 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN
NORTHWEST COLOMBIA TO 08N80W TO 05N91W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS
TO THE ITCZ, AND CONTINUES TO 04N015W TO 01N124W TO 02N135W
TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 108W-114W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 134W-140W, AND WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST
OF 137W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA.
ROUGH SEAS DOMINATE THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR
LESS, EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCALLY FRESH NW OFFSHORE CABO CORRIENTES.
SEAS IN THE GULF ARE 3 TO 6 FT, EXCEPT FOR LOWERS SEAS OF 1 TO 3
FT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, FRESH WINDS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL PERSIST TODAY
DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. MEANWHILE, NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT,
WITH FRESH SWELL FROM WINDS OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUSTAINING
ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH MON. WINDS MAY
PULSE TO FRESH NEAR CABO CORRIENTES LATE THIS WEEKEND. LOOKING
AHEAD, FRESH NORTH WINDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
LATE TUE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS FUNNELING
GAP WINDS THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA, LEADING TO FRESH
LOCALLY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION AS WELL AS
THE GULF OF PANAMA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT IN THOSE AREAS. WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PULSE IN
THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND NEAR GALE- FORCE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEAS IN THIS AREA
WILL BUILD TO ROUGH AT TIMES. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PULSE FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE
AZUERO PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY SAT, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AT
TIMES. ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY GALES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL IMPACT THE WATERS WELL OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE WITH
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF
THE AREA AND LOWER PRESSURE FOUND IN THE ITCZ REGION IS
RESULTING IN FRESH TRADES FROM 04N TO 25N WEST OF 115W ALONG
WITH SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT IN NORTHEAST TO EAST SWELL COMBINING
WITH WIND GENERATED SEAS. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
ELSEWHERE, WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX
TODAY, ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ROUGH SEAS DUE TO NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS TODAY, THEN RETREAT TO AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF ABOUT 130W INTO THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER
ROUND OF ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL IMPACT WATERS NORTH OF 05N AND EAST OF 110W
TONIGHT INTO SAT. LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH 30N140W EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF
IT AND LARGE BUILDING SEAS BEHIND IT.
AGUIRRE
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