763
AXPZ20 KNHC 202129
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAR 20 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SURGING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO HAS PRODUCED A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
THAT IS SUSTAINING GALE-FORCE NORTH TO NORTHEAST GAP WINDS IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS MAY
PEAK TO 40 KT, OR SLIGHTER HIGHER TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS FORECAST TO SLACKEN BY FRI AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR THESE WINDS
TO DIMINISH TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS. SEAS MAY POSSIBLY REACH
TO AROUND 21 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN
NORTHWEST COLOMBIA TO 08N85W TO 07N84W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO
THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO 04N96W TO 04N111W TO 01N125W TO
01N130W TO BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W
AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 105W-110W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
ONGOING GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA. ROUGH SEAS DOMINATE THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR LESS. SEAS IN THE GULF ARE 3 TO 6 FT, EXCEPT FOR
LOWER SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE THAN THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH
SPEEDS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH FRESH SWELL FROM
WINDS OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUSTAINING ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH MON. WINDS MAY PULSE TO FRESH NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING
AHEAD, FRESH NORTH WINDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
LATE TUE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS FUNNELING
GAP WINDS THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA, LEADING TO FRESH
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION AS SEEN IN THE LATEST
ASCAT SATELLITE DATA PASS OVER THAT PART OF THE AREA. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FRESH WINDS ARE INDICATED BY THE LATEST ASCAT
SATELLITE DATA PASS TO BE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 8
FT IN THOSE AREAS. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE WITH
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PULSE IN
THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND NEAR GALE-FORCE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEAS IN THIS AREA
WILL BUILD TO ROUGH AT TIMES. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PULSE FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE
AZUERO PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY SAT, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AT
TIMES. ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL IMPACT THE WATERS WELL OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER
ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF
THE AREA AND LOWER PRESSURE FOUND IN THE ITCZ REGION IS
RESULTING IN FRESH TRADES FROM 04N TO 25N WEST OF 115W ALONG
WITH SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT IN NORTHEAST TO EAST SWELL COMBINING
WITH WIND GENERATED SEAS. AN ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASS
CAPTURED THESE WAVE HEIGHTS. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
ELSEWHERE WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX
TODAY, ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ROUGH SEAS DUE TO NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS TODAY, THEN RETREAT TO AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF ABOUT 130W INTO THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER
ROUND OF ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL IMPACT WATERS NORTH OF 05N AND EAST OF 110W
TONIGHT INTO SAT. LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF IT AND LARGE BUILDING SEAS BEHIND IT.
AGUIRRE
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