752
AXPZ20 KNHC 210853
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAR 21 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SURGING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO HAS PRODUCED A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. THIS IS PRODUCING GALE-
FORCE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE REGION, PEAKING TO 40 KT
TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO SLACKEN BY FRI
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO FRESH TO STRONG
SPEEDS. VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 01N82W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 00N92W TO 02N121W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE TROUGH AND FROM 00N TO 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 119W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
ONGOING GALE CONDITIONS IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA, WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA. MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS,
WHILE ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE SLIGHT TO MODERATE ALONG WITH
MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE THAN THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS W OF BAJA AS WELL AS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS TODAY, BRINGING ROUGH SEAS INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA MAINLY N OF 25N THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS MAY
PULSE TO FRESH NEAR CABO CORRIENTES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FRESH NORTH WINDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE TUE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS FUNNELING
GAP WINDS THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA, LEADING TO FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION. FRESH
NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL ACROSS THESE AREAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PULSE IN
THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND NEAR GALE-FORCE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEAS IN THIS AREA
WILL BUILD TO ROUGH WITH STRONGEST WINDS. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL PULSE FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE AZUERO
PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY SAT, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES.
ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL IMPACT THE WATERS WELL OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER
ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF
THE AREA AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE ITCZ REGION IS RESULTING IN
FRESH TRADES FROM 05N TO 27N W OF 115W. ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL
IN THIS AREA IN NE SWELL. WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE ELSEWHERE
WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX
TODAY, ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE OPEN WATERS TODAY, THEN RETREAT TO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF
ABOUT 130W INTO THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER ROUND OF ROUGH
SEAS GENERATED BY GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL IMPACT WATERS NORTH OF 05N AND EAST OF 110W TONIGHT INTO
SAT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF IT AND
LARGE BUILDING SEAS BEHIND IT.
ERA
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