995
AXPZ20 KNHC 211600
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAR 21 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 13N AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. TODAY, EXPECT
N TO NE WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE, AND VERY ROUGH SEAS TO
16 FT WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT. A PLUME OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDS FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION
TO BEYOND 10N110W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE BY THIS EVENING BUT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SAT MORNING. MARINE INTERESTS TRANSITING ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH SAT MORNING SHOULD BE AWARE OF
THIS GAP WIND EVENT, AND TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE AFFECTED WATERS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N75W TO 01N84W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 01N84W TO 05N110W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00N TO 06N BETWEEN 98W AND 134W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
ONGOING GALE CONDITIONS IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA,
AND GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS BETWEEN PUNTA EUGENIA AND CABO
SAN LUCAS. SEAS ARE MODERATE WITHIN THIS WINDS. SEAS OF 8 FT IN
NW SWELL ARE REACHING THE WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 120W AND 124W.
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE
OBSERVED S OF 29N WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAIL IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FT, EXCEPT 3
TO 4 FT NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE MEXICAN WATERS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND PRODUCING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS. NW SWELL, WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 9 T
RANGE, WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF PUNTA
EUGENIA THROUGH SAT. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT ARE EXPECTED. WINDS MAY PULSE TO
FRESH SPEEDS NEAR CABO CORRIENTES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FRESH NORTH WINDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE TUE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS FUNNELING
GAP WINDS THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA, LEADING TO FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND TO
BEYOND 90W. FRESH N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PANAMA
WITH MODERATE SEAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE WITH
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF AREA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MON. SEAS GENERATED IN THE GAP WIND AREAS
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL PULSE FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA
THROUGH THE AZUERO PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY SAT, WITH LOCALLY
ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE
ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF
THE AREA AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE ITCZ REGION IS RESULTING IN
FRESH TRADES FROM 05N TO 27N W OF 115W. ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL
IN THIS AREA IN NE SWELL. WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE ELSEWHERE
WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX
TODAY, ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DECREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS TODAY, THEN RETREAT TO AREAS MAINLY WEST
OF ABOUT 130W INTO THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER ROUND OF ROUGH
SEAS GENERATED BY GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL IMPACT WATERS NORTH OF 05N AND EAST OF 110W TONIGHT INTO
SAT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF IT AND
LARGE BUILDING SEAS BEHIND IT.
GR
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