168
AXPZ20 KNHC 212104
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAR 21 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 14N, WITH A PLUME OF FRESH TO
STRONG NE TO E WINDS EXTENDING FAR AWAY FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC
REGION TO BEYOND 10N100W. AN ALTIMETER PASS SHOWS SEAS TO NEAR 16
FT. SEAS 8 FT OR HIGHER ARE REACHING 10N. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY THIS EVENING BUT FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT MORNING. MARINE
INTERESTS TRANSITING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH SAT
MORNING SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS GAP WIND EVENT, AND TAKE THE
NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE
AFFECTED WATERS.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY, THE FIRST GALE-FORCE EVENT OF THE SEASON
OCCURS IN MID-OCTOBER, WITH THE FINAL GALE-FORCE EVENT OCCURRING
IN LATE MARCH OR EARLY APRIL. OCCASIONALLY, GALE-FORCE EVENTS
MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS SEPTEMBER, AND AS LATE AS MAY.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N75W TO 04N77W TO 01N84W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 01N84W TO 03N110W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00N TO 05N BETWEEN 100W AND
136W. AS IT IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, A SECOND ITCZ IS
NOTED S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS N OF CABO SAN LAZARO,
AND GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS BETWEEN CABO SAN LAZARO AND CABO
SAN LUCAS. SEAS ARE MODERATE WITHIN THESE WINDS. SEAS OF 8 TO 9
FT IN NW SWELL ARE REACHING THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 118W AND
124W. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FT,
EXCEPT 3 TO 4 FT NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE MEXICAN WATERS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE
NW WINDS. NW SWELL, WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 9 T RANGE, WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA THROUGH SUN.
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 1 TO
3 FT ARE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS MAY
PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS NEAR CABO CORRIENTES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS MAY DEVELOP
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
PROMOTING GAP WINDS THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA, LEADING
TO FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND
DOWNWIND TO BEYOND 90W. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE WITHIN THESE
WINDS. FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA
FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE SEAS. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PRIMARILY
IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MON. SEAS GENERATED IN THE GAP
WIND AREAS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR THROUGH
SAT NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL PULSE FROM THE
GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE AZUERO PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY SAT
MORNING, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE
OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 24N129W DOMINATES
MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 110W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE ITCZ REGION IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADES 05N TO 14N W OF 110W. SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT PREVAIL IN THIS
AREA MAINLY IN NE SWELL. GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
EVIDENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 14N AND W OF 110W.
WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WATERS PATTERN MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 110W
THROUGH THE WEEKEND PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS.
ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN
WATERS TONIGHT, THEN RETREAT TO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF ABOUT 130W
INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS GENERATED BY GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL IMPACT WATERS NORTH OF 05N AND EAST OF 110W
TONIGHT INTO SAT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE AREA LATE ON TUE WITH INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF IT
AND LARGE BUILDING SEAS BEHIND IT.
GR
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