481
AXPZ20 KNHC 220334
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAR 22 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLIER TODAY WERE LEADING TO GALE-
FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS BLASTING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WINDS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
HAVE SHIFTED TO SOUTHEASTERLY, CAUSING THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH, AND IS NOW BELOW 30 KT
THIS EVENING. THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF TEHUANTEPEC
TONIGHT THROUGH SAT, WITH SEAS OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
BELOW 8 FT SAT MORNING.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY, THE FIRST GALE-FORCE EVENT OF THE SEASON
OCCURS IN MID-OCTOBER, WITH THE FINAL GALE-FORCE EVENT TYPICALLY
OCCURRING IN LATE MARCH OR EARLY APRIL. OCCASIONALLY, GALE-FORCE
EVENTS MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS SEPTEMBER, AND AS LATE AS MAY.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N72.5W TO 01N84W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 01N84W TO 04N111W TO 02.5N123W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00N TO 04N EAST OF
81W, SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 00N
TO 06.5N BETWEEN 97W AND 140W. AS IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR, A SECOND ITCZ IS NOTED S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 118W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
THE GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED IN STRENGTH AND
AERIAL COVERAGE SINCE THIS AFTERNOON, AND ARE NOW LESS THAN 30
KT. SEAS BEYOND 120 NM OF THE COAST OF TEHUANTEPEC REMAIN AT 8 TO
9 FT AND HIGHER IN MIXED SWELL. PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED ON 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 32N143W
EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS RIDGE
DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS N OF CABO SAN LAZARO,
AND GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS BETWEEN CABO SAN LAZARO AND CABO
SAN LUCAS. SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL ARE REACHING THE WATERS
N OF 28N BETWEEN 117W AND 126W AND ARE 4 TO 7 FT SOUTH OF 28N.
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE WITH
SEAS GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FT, EXCEPT 3 TO 4 FT NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO
THE GULF. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE MEXICAN WATERS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE, A BROAD RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND, PRODUCING MODERATE NW WINDS ACROSS
THE BAJA WATERS. NW SWELL PRODUCING SEAS IN THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA THROUGH MON.
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
ARE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS MAY PULSE TO
FRESH SPEEDS NEAR CABO CORRIENTES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING
AHEAD, FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA, SOUTH OF 1022 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NE GULF OF AMERICA. THIS PATTERN IS
PROMOTING GAP WINDS THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA, LEADING
TO FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND
DOWNWIND TO 90W. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT ARE WITHIN THESE
WINDS. FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA
FROM THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE SEAS. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PRIMARILY
IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST MON. SEAS GENERATED IN THE GAP WIND AREAS OF TEHUANTEPEC
AND PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS
OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR THROUGH SAT NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG
N TO NE WINDS WILL PULSE FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE
AZUERO PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE ALONG
WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A PAIR OF 1026 MB HIGH CENTERS ARE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
ALONG 32N BETWEEN 130W AND 145W. THIS IS PRODUCING A BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION, AND DOMINATES MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE
ITCZ AND W OF 110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ REGION IS RESULTING
IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES 05N TO 26N W OF 122W. SEAS
OF 6 TO 9 FT PREVAIL IN THIS AREA IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL.
GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 14N BETWEEN 122W AND 110W. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL FROM 04N TO 12N EAST OF 110W, AS STRONG
GAP WIND FLOW SPILLING OUT OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO MERGE WELL
DOWNSTREAM. SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT ARE OCCURRING IN THIS AREA BETWEEN
92W AND 108W IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. WINDS ARE GENTLE TO
MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITH MODERATE SEAS. ACTIVE CONVECTION
CONTINUES ABOUT THE ITCZ, FROM 00N TO 06.5N BETWEEN 97W AND
140W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST JUST NORTH OF THE
NORTHWESTERN WATERS THROUGH SUN BEFORE DRIFTING NE, AND REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 110W THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE WILL PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE
WINDS SOUTH OF 25N, AND MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS NORTH OF
25N. ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OPEN WATERS TONIGHT, THEN RETREAT TO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF ABOUT
130W INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS GENERATED BY RECENT GALE FORCE WINDS
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL IMPACT WATERS NORTH OF 05N AND
EAST OF 110W TONIGHT INTO SAT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA LATE ON TUE WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT AND LARGE NW SWELL BEHIND
IT.
STRIPLING
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