803
AXPZ20 KNHC 220908
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAR 22 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0850 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N71W TO 00.5N83W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 00N84W TO 01S96W TO 04N124W TO 03.5N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01S TO 07N BETWEEN
79W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 07.5S TO 07N BETWEEN 109W AND 140W. AS IS NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR, A SECOND ITCZ IS NOTED S OF THE EQUATOR W OF
120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE YESTERDAY
WERE LEADING TO GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS BLASTING ACROSS THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WINDS IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE HAVE SHIFTED EAST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, CAUSING
THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC TO DIMINISH IN
STRENGTH AND AERIAL COVERAGE. WINDS THERE ARE NOW BELOW 30 KT AND
EXTEND IN A NARROW PLUME TO 75 NM OFFSHORE. PEAK SEAS IN THIS
AREA ARE NOW 8 FT. FURTHER OFFSHORE, WINDS BECOME NE AT 15 KT OR
LESS. SOUTH OF 13N, SEAS ARE CONFUSED AT 7 TO 9 FT, EXTENDING
FROM THE PAPAGAYO REGION WESTWARD TO BEYOND 100W, IN MERGING
SWELL FROM SEVERAL DIFFERING DIRECTIONS.
ELSEWHERE, A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED ON 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
32N137W EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS
RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
SUPPORTS MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS N OF CABO SAN
LAZARO, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS BETWEEN CABO SAN LAZARO
AND CABO CORRIENTES. SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL ARE REACHING
THE WATERS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA, EXTENDING OFFSHORE BEYOND 120W.
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE
WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FT, EXCEPT 3 TO 4 FT NEAR THE ENTRANCE
TO THE GULF. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE MEXICAN WATERS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT IN MIXED NW AND
SW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE, A BROAD RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH SUN, THE BEGIN TO DRIFT NE AND
WEAKEN MON AND TUE. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY MODERATE NW TO N WINDS
ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS THROUGH MON. SEAS IN THE 7 TO 10 FT RANGE
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA AND FAR OUTER
WATERS OF CENTRAL BAJA THROUGH MON. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE
TO FRESH SPEEDS NEAR CABO CORRIENTES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC REGION BY TUE NIGHT AND WED.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA, SOUTH OF 1022 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NE GULF OF AMERICA. THIS PATTERN IS
PROMOTING OFFSHORE GAP WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
THE GULF OF PANAMA TO THE GULF OF FONSECA. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WERE CAPTURED BY SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER
DATA OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND TO 95W.
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT ARE WITHIN THESE WINDS. FRESH N TO
NE WINDS ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PRIMARILY
IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION, AND MODERATE TO FRESH OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REMAINING WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MON. SEAS GENERATED IN
THE GAP WIND AREAS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR
THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL PULSE
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE AZUERO PENINSULA THROUGH
SUN MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A PAIR OF 1026 MB HIGH CENTERS ARE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
ALONG 32N BETWEEN 130W AND 145W. THIS IS PRODUCING A BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION, AND DOMINATES MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE
ITCZ AND W OF 110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ REGION IS RESULTING
IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES FROM 05N TO 26N W OF 120W.
SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT PREVAIL IN THIS AREA IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL.
GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 26N AND WEST OF 124W. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL FROM 05N TO 12N EAST OF 110W, AS
STRONG GAP WIND FLOW SPILLING OUT OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO
MERGE WELL DOWNSTREAM. SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT ARE OCCURRING IN THIS
AREA BETWEEN 92W AND 108W IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. WINDS ARE
GENTLE TO MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITH MODERATE SEAS. ACTIVE
CONVECTION CONTINUES ABOUT THE ITCZ, FROM 00N TO 07.5N BETWEEN
108W AND 140W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST JUST NORTH OF THE
NORTHWESTERN WATERS THROUGH SUN BEFORE DRIFTING NE, AND REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 110W THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE WILL PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE
WINDS SOUTH OF 25N, AND MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS NORTH OF
25N. ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OPEN WATERS TODAY, THEN RETREAT TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF 18N AND WEST
OF ABOUT 130W THROUGH SUN. SEAS GENERATED BY RECENT GALE FORCE
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL IMPACT WATERS NORTH OF 05N
AND EAST OF 110W TODAY THEN SUBSIDE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA LATE ON TUE WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT AND LARGE NW SWELL BEHIND
IT.
STRIPLING
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