208   
AXPZ20 KNHC 221528  
TWDEP  
  
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1605 UTC SAT MAR 22 2025  
  
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND  
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING  
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,  
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
  
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1500 UTC.  
   
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH  
  
A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 09N76W TO 00N82W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS    
FROM 05N88W TO 04N115W TO 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED  
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE SOUTH END OF THE TROUGH AXIS  
FROM 00N TO 04N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY  
CAN ALSO BE FOUND FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 105W AND 117W, AND   
FROM 03N TO 07N W OF 120W. AS IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE   
YEAR, A SECOND ITCZ IS NOTED S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 110W PRODUCING  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM THE   
EQUATOR TO 10S BETWEEN 114W AND 130W.   
   
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO  
  
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, WINDS ARE NOW BELOW 30 KT AND EXTEND  
IN A NARROW PLUME TO 75 NM OFFSHORE. PEAK SEAS IN THIS AREA ARE   
AROUND 8 FT. FURTHER OFFSHORE, WINDS BECOME NE AT 15 KT OR LESS.  
SOUTH OF 12N, SEAS ARE IN THE 8 TO 11 FT RANGE PER ALTIMETER DATA,  
EXTENDING FROM THE PAPAGAYO REGION WESTWARD TO BEYOND 100W, IN   
MERGING SWELL FROM SEVERAL DIFFERING DIRECTIONS.  
  
ELSEWHERE, A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED ON 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR   
33N131W EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS  
RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND   
SUPPORTS MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS N OF CABO SAN   
LAZARO, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS BETWEEN CABO SAN LAZARO   
AND CABO SAN LUCAS. SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL ARE REACHING   
THE WATERS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA, EXTENDING OFFSHORE BEYOND 120W. IN  
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE WITH   
SEAS GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FT, EXCEPT 3 TO 4 FT NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO   
THE GULF. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE MEXICAN WATERS LIGHT AND   
VARIABLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT IN MIXED NW AND SW   
SWELL PREVAIL.  
  
FOR THE FORECAST, NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED   
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE, A BROAD RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN   
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH SUN, THE BEGIN TO   
DRIFT NE AND WEAKEN MON AND TUE. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY   
MODERATE NW TO N WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS THROUGH MON. SEAS   
IN THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF PUNTA  
EUGENIA AND FAR OUTER WATERS OF CENTRAL BAJA THROUGH MON. IN THE  
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE   
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE NW WINDS ARE   
EXPECTED TO PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS NEAR CABO CORRIENTES DURING THE  
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.   
LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO   
RETURN TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION BY TUE NIGHT AND WED.  
  
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,   
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  
  
A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN  
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA, SOUTH OF 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE   
CENTERED ACROSS THE NE GULF OF AMERICA. THIS PATTERN IS PROMOTING  
OFFSHORE GAP WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE GULF   
OF PANAMA TO THE GULF OF FONSECA. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO   
EAST WINDS WERE CAPTURED BY SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA   
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND TO 90W.   
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT ARE WITHIN THESE WINDS. FRESH TO   
LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF   
PANAMA FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE SEAS OF 5   
TO 8 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHT TO   
MODERATE SEAS PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.  
  
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT   
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE   
PAPAGAYO REGION, AND MODERATE TO FRESH OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS MUCH  
OF THE REMAINING WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MON. SEAS GENERATED IN   
THE GAP WIND AREAS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO   
IMPACT THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR   
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL PULSE   
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE AZUERO PENINSULA THROUGH SUN   
MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO   
MODERATE SEAS.  
   
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.  
  
A PAIR OF 1026 MB HIGH CENTERS ARE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA  
ALONG 32N/33N BETWEEN 130W AND 145W. THIS IS PRODUCING A BROAD   
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION, AND DOMINATES MOST OF THE WATERS N OF   
THE ITCZ AND W OF 110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM  
AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ REGION IS   
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES FROM 05N TO 26N W   
OF 120W. SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT PREVAIL IN THIS AREA IN MIXED NE AND   
NW SWELL. GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAIL ACROSS THE  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 26N AND WEST OF 124W. MODERATE TO   
FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL FROM 05N TO 12N EAST OF 110W, AS STRONG  
GAP WIND FLOW SPILLING OUT OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO MERGE   
WELL DOWNSTREAM. SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT ARE OCCURRING IN THIS AREA   
MAINLY BETWEEN 92W AND 106W IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. WINDS ARE   
GENTLE TO MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITH MODERATE SEAS.   
  
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST JUST NORTH OF THE  
NORTHWESTERN WATERS THROUGH SUN BEFORE DRIFTING NE, AND REMAIN   
IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 110W THROUGH   
THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY   
FRESH TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF 25N, AND MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE   
WINDS NORTH OF 25N. ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS   
MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS TODAY, THEN RETREAT TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH  
OF 18N AND WEST OF ABOUT 130W THROUGH SUN. SEAS GENERATED BY   
RECENT GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL IMPACT   
WATERS NORTH OF 05N AND EAST OF 110W TODAY THEN SUBSIDE. A   
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA  
LATE ON TUE WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT AND   
LARGE NW SWELL BEHIND IT.  
  
  
GR  
 
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