320
AXPZ20 KNHC 221529
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAR 22 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 09N76W TO 00N82W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 05N88W TO 04N115W TO 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE SOUTH END OF THE TROUGH AXIS
FROM 00N TO 04N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
CAN ALSO BE FOUND FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 105W AND 117W, AND
FROM 03N TO 07N W OF 120W. AS IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR, A SECOND ITCZ IS NOTED S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 110W PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 10S BETWEEN 114W AND 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, WINDS ARE NOW BELOW 30 KT AND EXTEND
IN A NARROW PLUME TO 75 NM OFFSHORE. PEAK SEAS IN THIS AREA ARE
AROUND 8 FT. FURTHER OFFSHORE, WINDS BECOME NE AT 15 KT OR LESS.
SOUTH OF 12N, SEAS ARE IN THE 8 TO 11 FT RANGE PER ALTIMETER DATA,
EXTENDING FROM THE PAPAGAYO REGION WESTWARD TO BEYOND 100W, IN
MERGING SWELL FROM SEVERAL DIFFERING DIRECTIONS.
ELSEWHERE, A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED ON 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
33N131W EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS
RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
SUPPORTS MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS N OF CABO SAN
LAZARO, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS BETWEEN CABO SAN LAZARO
AND CABO SAN LUCAS. SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL ARE REACHING
THE WATERS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA, EXTENDING OFFSHORE BEYOND 120W. IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE WITH
SEAS GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FT, EXCEPT 3 TO 4 FT NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO
THE GULF. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE MEXICAN WATERS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT IN MIXED NW AND SW
SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE, A BROAD RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH SUN, THE BEGIN TO
DRIFT NE AND WEAKEN MON AND TUE. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY
MODERATE NW TO N WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS THROUGH MON. SEAS
IN THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF PUNTA
EUGENIA AND FAR OUTER WATERS OF CENTRAL BAJA THROUGH MON. IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS NEAR CABO CORRIENTES DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION BY TUE NIGHT AND WED.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA, SOUTH OF 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS THE NE GULF OF AMERICA. THIS PATTERN IS PROMOTING
OFFSHORE GAP WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE GULF
OF PANAMA TO THE GULF OF FONSECA. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS WERE CAPTURED BY SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND TO 90W.
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT ARE WITHIN THESE WINDS. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF
PANAMA FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE SEAS OF 5
TO 8 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION, AND MODERATE TO FRESH OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REMAINING WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MON. SEAS GENERATED IN
THE GAP WIND AREAS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL PULSE
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE AZUERO PENINSULA THROUGH SUN
MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A PAIR OF 1026 MB HIGH CENTERS ARE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
ALONG 32N/33N BETWEEN 130W AND 145W. THIS IS PRODUCING A BROAD
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION, AND DOMINATES MOST OF THE WATERS N OF
THE ITCZ AND W OF 110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM
AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ REGION IS
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES FROM 05N TO 26N W
OF 120W. SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT PREVAIL IN THIS AREA IN MIXED NE AND
NW SWELL. GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 26N AND WEST OF 124W. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL FROM 05N TO 12N EAST OF 110W, AS STRONG
GAP WIND FLOW SPILLING OUT OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO MERGE
WELL DOWNSTREAM. SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT ARE OCCURRING IN THIS AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 92W AND 106W IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. WINDS ARE
GENTLE TO MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST JUST NORTH OF THE
NORTHWESTERN WATERS THROUGH SUN BEFORE DRIFTING NE, AND REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 110W THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF 25N, AND MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS NORTH OF 25N. ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS TODAY, THEN RETREAT TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF 18N AND WEST OF ABOUT 130W THROUGH SUN. SEAS GENERATED BY
RECENT GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL IMPACT
WATERS NORTH OF 05N AND EAST OF 110W TODAY THEN SUBSIDE. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA
LATE ON TUE WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT AND
LARGE NW SWELL BEHIND IT.
GR
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