319
AXPZ20 KNHC 222104
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAR 22 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 09N75W TO 00N83W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW
VERY WELL THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 06N88W TO 03N110W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE SOUTH END OF THE
TROUGH AXIS FROM 00N TO 04N BETWEEN 79W AND 85W. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY CAN ALSO BE FOUND FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W,
AND FROM 00N TO 06N W OF 120W.
AS IT IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, A SECOND ITCZ IS NOTED
S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 110W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM THE EQUATOR TO 08S
BETWEEN 114W AND 131W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNWIND BEYOND 14N. SEAS ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 4 TO 6 FT. ELSEWHERE, A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED ON 1026 MB
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 32N131W EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SUPPORTS GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
WINDS. SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL ARE REACHING THE WATERS N OF
PUNTA EUGENIA, EXTENDING OFFSHORE BEYOND 120W. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE WITH SEAS GENERALLY
1 TO 3 FT, EXCEPT 3 TO 4 FT NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF.
MODERATE NW TO N WINDS ARE NEAR CABO CORRIENTES. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE MEXICAN WATERS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS. SEAS IN THE 7 TO 9 FT
RANGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA AND FAR
OUTER WATERS OF CENTRAL BAJA THROUGH LATE MON. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS NEAR CABO CORRIENTES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING
AHEAD, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION BY TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS GAP
WIND EVENT COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH THAT MOVES WESTWARD
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA, SOUTH OF 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS THE NE GULF OF AMERICA. THIS PATTERN IS PROMOTING
OFFSHORE GAP WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE GULF
OF PANAMA TO THE GULF OF FONSECA. SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA
PROVIDE OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNWIND TO BEYOND 90W. MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS TO 9 FT ARE WITHIN THESE WINDS. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE
ALSO NOTED IN THE GULF OF FONSECA EXTENDING TO NEAR 12.5N89W.
MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF
PANAMA FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE SEAS OF 4
TO 7 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION THROUGH MON NIGHT. SEAS GENERATED IN THE GAP WIND AREAS
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL PULSE FROM THE GULF
OF PANAMA THROUGH THE AZUERO PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A PAIR OF 1026 MB HIGH CENTERS ARE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
ALONG 32N BETWEEN 130W AND 145W. THIS IS PRODUCING A BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION, AND DOMINATES MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE
ITCZ AND W OF 110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ REGION IS RESULTING
IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES FROM 05N TO 24N W OF 120W.
SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT PREVAIL IN THIS AREA IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL.
GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA N OF 24N AND WEST OF 110W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WINDS PREVAIL FROM 05N TO 12N EAST OF 110W. SEAS OF 8 TO
11 FT ARE OCCURRING IN THIS AREA MAINLY BETWEEN 93W AND 107W IN A
BROAD MIX OF SWELL. WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITH
MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 110W
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF 25N, AND MAINLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS NORTH OF 25N. A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD
NW SWELL IS ENTERING THE NW FORECAST WATERS. AS A RESULT, ROUGH
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY THE WATERS N OF 18N AND WEST
OF ABOUT 130W THROUGH SUN. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO
FRESH NW WINDS, AND ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL.
GR
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