726
AXPZ20 KNHC 230311
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAR 23 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0210 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO 00N83W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
04N92W TO 04.5N109W TO 01N119W TO 03N128W WHERE IT THEN BECOMES
ILL DEFINED IN A ZONE OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE FROM 01S TO 07N EAST OF 82W
TO THE COASTS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOTS THE
AREA FROM 05.5S TO 04N BETWEEN 87W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06.5S TO 08.5N BETWEEN 111W
AND 142W.
AS IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, A SECOND ITCZ IS NOTED S
OF THE EQUATOR W OF 112W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED ON 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED W OF THE
AREA NEAR 33N136W EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD TO JUST BEYOND THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SUPPORTS GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
WINDS. SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS
N OF PUNTA EUGENIA, EXTENDING OFFSHORE WELL BEYOND 120W.
ACROSS THE REMAINING BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT. IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE WITH
SEAS GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FT, EXCEPT 3 TO 4 FT NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO
THE GULF. MODERATE NW TO N WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS SURROUNDING CABO CORRIENTES. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE MEXICAN WATERS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
GRADUALLY WEAKENING SUN THROUGH TUE. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE
GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS THROUGH WED
MORNING, EXCEPT FOR FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS NW AND W OF
ISLA GUADALUPE THROUGH SUN. SEAS IN THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA AND FAR OUTER
WATERS OF CENTRAL BAJA THROUGH LATE MON. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS NEAR CABO CORRIENTES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING
AHEAD, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION BY TUE NIGHT AND WED.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA, DIRECTLY SOUTH OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS THE NE GULF OF AMERICA. THIS PATTERN IS PROMOTING
A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO THE GULF OF FONSECA. AFTERNOON
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E
WINDS EXTENDING OFFSHORE OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, NICARAGUA AND
THE GULF OF FONSECA, DOWNWIND TO 92W. SEAS GENERATED IN THIS
BROAD PLUME OF WINDS IS MERGING WITH NORTHERLY SWELL FROM A
RECENT TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS TO 10 FT WITHIN THIS AREA OF WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO
NE WINDS ARE ALSO FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO 06N. MODERATE
SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT PREVAIL THERE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE DUE N OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THE REGION, FROM
THE GULF OF PANAMA TO PAPAGAYO AND CENTRAL NICARAGUA THROUGH SUN
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD, ALLOWING
WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH WED. HOWEVER, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION E OF 88W THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MERGING SEAS GENERATED IN THE
GAP WIND AREAS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE OUTER WATERS OF GUATEMALA, EL SALVADOR AND NICARAGUA
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A PAIR OF 1025 MB HIGH CENTERS ARE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA ALONG 33N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. THIS IS PRODUCING A BROAD
RIDGE EAST TO WEST ORIENTED RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION, AND
DOMINATES MOST OF THE WATERS N OF 04N AND W OF 110W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ REGION IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADES FROM 04N TO 24N W OF 120W. SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT
PREVAIL IN THIS AREA IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF
24N AND WEST OF 110W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS
PREVAIL FROM 05N TO 12N EAST OF 112W. SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT ARE
OCCURRING IN THIS AREA MAINLY BETWEEN 93W AND 107W IN A BROAD MIX
OF SWELL. WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITH MODERATE
SEAS. SCATTERED CONVECTION REMAINS ACTIVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL
WATERS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 08.5N BETWEEN 111W AND 142W, AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NW.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF
110W THROUGH TUE, WHILE DRIFTING NE AND WEAKENING. THIS PATTERN
WILL PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF
25N, AND MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS NORTH OF 25N. NEW NW
SWELL ENTERING THE NW FORECAST WATERS LATE TODAY WILL MAINTAIN
SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT AND HIGHER N OF 15N AND WEST OF ABOUT 130W
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS BETWEEN 120W AND 130W THROUGH MON. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA
TUE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS, AND ADDITIONAL
PULSES OF NW SWELL.
STRIPLING
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