823
AXPZ20 KNHC 230850
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAR 23 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 09.5N74.5W TO 01N84W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 04.5N91W TO 02N104W TO 05N123W WHERE IT THEN BECOMES ILL
DEFINED IN A ZONE OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE FROM 03S TO 07N EAST OF 82.5W
TO THE COASTS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOTS THE AREA FROM
04.5S TO 04.5N BETWEEN 85W AND 107W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06.5S TO
09.5N BETWEEN 119W AND 141W.
AS IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, A SECOND ITCZ IS NOTED S
OF THE EQUATOR W OF 128W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED ON 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED W OF THE
AREA NEAR 33N134W EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD TO JUST BEYOND THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, AND SUPPORTS GENTLE
TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS. SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA, EXTENDING OFFSHORE
WELL BEYOND 120W. ACROSS THE REMAINING BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS SEAS
ARE 5 TO 8 FT. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS CONTINUE WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FT, EXCEPT 3 TO 4 FT
NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF. MODERATE NW TO N WINDS CONTINUES
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING CABO CORRIENTES.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE MEXICAN WATERS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
GRADUALLY WEAKENING TONIGHT THROUGH WED. THIS PATTERN WILL
PRODUCE GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS
THROUGH WED, EXCEPT FOR FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS NW AND W
OF ISLA GUADALUPE TODAY. SEAS IN THE 7 TO 10 FT RANGE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA AND FAR OUTER
WATERS OF CENTRAL BAJA THROUGH LATE MON BEFORE SUBSIDING. IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS NEAR CABO CORRIENTES DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY INTO TUE. LOOKING
AHEAD, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION BY TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS THU LEADING
TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA, DIRECTLY SOUTH OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS THE NE GULF OF AMERICA. THIS PATTERN HAS
PROMOTED A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AMERICA, BUT IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO ABATE AND NOW COVERS
THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA. OVERNIGHT
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH TO
STRONG E WINDS EXTENDING OFFSHORE OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND
SOUTHERN NICARAGUA DOWNWIND TO 96W. SEAS GENERATED IN THIS BROAD
PLUME OF WINDS IS MERGING WITH NORTHERLY SWELL FROM A RECENT
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS TO
9 FT WITHIN THIS AREA OF WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS
ARE ALSO FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO 06N. MODERATE SEAS OF 4 TO 7
FT PREVAIL THERE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THE REGION, FROM THE
GULF OF PANAMA TO PAPAGAYO AND CENTRAL NICARAGUA THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD,
ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS THROUGH THU. HOWEVER, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE
TO ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION E OF 88W THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MERGING SEAS
GENERATED IN THE GAP WIND AREAS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OUTER WATERS OF GUATEMALA, EL SALVADOR AND
NICARAGUA THROUGH THIS MORNING.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A 1026 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR
33N134W. THIS IS PRODUCING A BROAD EAST TO WEST ORIENTED RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION, AND DOMINATES MOST OF THE WATERS N OF 04N AND
W OF 112W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ REGION IS RESULTING IN
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES FROM 04N TO 26N W OF 122W. SEAS
OF 6 TO 9 FT PREVAIL IN THIS AREA IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL.
GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 26N AND WEST OF 112W. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL FROM 05N TO 11N EAST OF 102W.
SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT ARE OCCURRING IN THIS AREA MAINLY BETWEEN 93W
AND 102W IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE
ELSEWHERE WITH MODERATE SEAS. SCATTERED CONVECTION REMAINS ACTIVE
ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 09.5N BETWEEN 119W
AND 141W, AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NW.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF
110W THROUGH TUE, WHILE DRIFTING NE AND WEAKENING. THIS PATTERN
WILL PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF
25N, AND MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS NORTH OF 25N. NEW NW
SWELL ENTERING THE NW FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN SEAS
TO AROUND 8 FT AND HIGHER N OF 15N AND WEST OF ABOUT 128W
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS BETWEEN 120W AND 130W THROUGH MON. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA
TUE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS, AND ADDITIONAL
PULSES OF LARGE NW SWELL.
STRIPLING
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