873
AXPZ20 KNHC 231538
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAR 23 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO 00N88W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
00N88W TO 02N104W TO 05N120W TO 02N140W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION ARE NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 01N TO 07N
BETWEEN THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 02N TO 12N BETWEEN
100W AND 120W.
AS IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, A SECOND ITCZ IS NOTED S
OF THE EQUATOR W OF 130W PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED ON 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED N OF THE
AREA NEAR 32N133W EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD TO JUST BEYOND THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, AND SUPPORTS GENTLE
TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS. SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA, EXTENDING OFFSHORE
WELL BEYOND 120W. ACROSS THE REMAINING BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS SEAS
ARE 5 TO 7 FT. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS CONTINUE WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FT, EXCEPT 3 TO 4 FT
NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF. MODERATE NW TO N WINDS CONTINUES
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING CABO CORRIENTES.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE MEXICAN WATERS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
GRADUALLY WEAKENING TONIGHT THROUGH WED. THIS PATTERN WILL
PRODUCE GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS
THROUGH WED, EXCEPT FOR FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS NW AND W
OF ISLA GUADALUPE TODAY. SEAS IN THE 7 TO 10 FT RANGE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA AND FAR OUTER
WATERS OF CENTRAL BAJA THROUGH LATE MON BEFORE SUBSIDING. IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. MODERATE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS NEAR CABO CORRIENTES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY INTO TUE. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC REGION BY TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS THU LEADING TO
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA, DIRECTLY SOUTH OF A 1022 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NE GULF OF AMERICA. THIS PATTERN HAS
PROMOTED A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AMERICA, BUT IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO ABATE AND NOW COVERS
THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA, INCLUDING
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS CONTINUE TO
BLOW ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 90W. MODERATE
TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE ALSO FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF
PANAMA FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO
06N. MODERATE SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT PREVAIL THERE. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PRIMARILY IN SW
SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THE REGION, FROM THE
GULF OF PANAMA TO PAPAGAYO AND CENTRAL NICARAGUA THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD,
ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS THROUGH THU. HOWEVER, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE
TO ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION E OF 88W THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MERGING SEAS
GENERATED IN THE GAP WIND AREAS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OUTER WATERS OF GUATEMALA, EL SALVADOR AND
NICARAGUA THROUGH THIS MORNING.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A 1026 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR
32N133W. THIS IS PRODUCING A BROAD EAST TO WEST ORIENTED RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION, AND DOMINATES MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ
AND W OF 110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ REGION IS RESULTING IN
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES FROM 04N TO 26N W OF 112W. SEAS
OF 6 TO 9 FT PREVAIL IN THIS AREA IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL.
GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA N OF 26N AND WEST OF 112W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WINDS PREVAIL FROM 05N TO 11N EAST OF 102W. SEAS IN THIS
AREA HAVE SUBSIDED TO 5 TO 7 FT ARE OCCURRING IN THIS AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 90W AND 102W IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. WINDS ARE
GENTLE TO MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF
110W THROUGH TUE, WHILE DRIFTING NE AND WEAKENING. THIS PATTERN
WILL PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF
25N, AND MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS NORTH OF 25N. NEW NW
SWELL CURRENTLY PROPAGATING ACROSS THE NW FORECAST WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT AND HIGHER N OF 15N AND WEST OF
ABOUT 128W THROUGH TONIGHT. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS BETWEEN 120W AND 130W THROUGH
MON. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA TUE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS, AND
ADDITIONAL PULSES OF LARGE NW SWELL.
GR
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