672
AXPZ20 KNHC 232119
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAR 23 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 09N75W TO 03N84W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
03N84W TO 02N100W TO 05N122W TO 00N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N E
OF 90W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, AND FROM 02N TO 14N BETWEEN
110W AND 132W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED ON 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED N OF THE
AREA NEAR 33N131W EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. THIS RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND SUPPORTS GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS.
SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF
PUNTA EUGENIA, WHILE SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE NOTED ACROSS THE
REMAINING BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PERSIST WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FT.
MODERATE NW TO N WINDS ARE SEEN PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING CABO CORRIENTES. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE MEXICAN WATERS, INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC,
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED
NW AND SW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, GRADUALLY
WEAKENING THROUGH WED. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE GENTLE TO MODERATE
NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH WED, EXCEPT
FOR MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS NW AND W OF
ISLA GUADALUPE THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS IN THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA AND FAR OUTER
WATERS OF CENTRAL BAJA THROUGH LATE MON BEFORE SUBSIDING. IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. MODERATE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS NEAR CABO CORRIENTES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH TUE. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC REGION BY TUE NIGHT INTO WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS THU LEADING TO INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA, DIRECTLY SW OF A 1023 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. UNDER THIS WEATHER
PATTERN, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E PERSIST IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION
AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 09N91W. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE
ALSO FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO 06N. MODERATE SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT
PREVAIL THERE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
THROUGH MON NIGHT, THEN MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS
WILL PREVAIL. IN THE GULF OF PANAMA, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD, ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THU.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A 1026 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR
33N131W. THIS IS PRODUCING A BROAD EAST TO WEST ORIENTED RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION, AND DOMINATES MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ
AND W OF 110W WHERE A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW PREVAIL WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT. IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS W OF
110W. E OF 110W, MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE SEEN WITH
MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 110W
THROUGH TUE, WHILE DRIFTING NE AND WEAKENING. THIS PATTERN WILL
PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, OCCASIONALLY FRESH IN THE
TRADE WIND ZONE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH NW
WINDS, AND ADDITIONAL PULSES OF LARGE NW SWELL.
GR
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