497
AXPZ20 KNHC 240405
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAR 24 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 09N74W TO 03N80W TO 03N93W TO 01N106W.
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N118W TO 07N131W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ONGOING FROM
02N TO 05N BETWEEN 84W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 01N TO 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 135W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED ON 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED N OF THE
AREA NEAR 35N131W EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. THIS RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND SUPPORTS GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS. SEAS
OF 7 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF PUNTA
EUGENIA, WHILE SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE NOTED ACROSS THE REMAINING
BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS PERSIST WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FT.
MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE JALISCO
OFFSHORE WATERS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE MEXICAN WATERS,
INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED NW AND E SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, GRADUALLY
WEAKENING THROUGH WED. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE GENTLE TO MODERATE
NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH WED, EXCEPT
FOR MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS NW AND W OF
ISLA GUADALUPE THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS IN THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA AND FAR OUTER
WATERS OF CENTRAL BAJA THROUGH LATE MON BEFORE SUBSIDING. IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. MODERATE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS NEAR CABO CORRIENTES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH TUE. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC REGION BY TUE NIGHT INTO WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS THU LEADING TO INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA, DIRECTLY SW OF A 1025 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST S OF BERMUDA. UNDER THIS WEATHER PATTERN,
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E PERSIST IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND
DOWNWIND TO NEAR 09N89W. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE
ALSO FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO 06N. MODERATE SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT
PREVAIL THERE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
THROUGH FRI, THEN MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS FROM THE PAPAGAYO GAP WIND
EVENT WILL EXTEND TO THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND
EL SALVADOR THROUGH FRI. IN THE GULF OF PANAMA, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A 1025 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR
35N131W. THIS IS PRODUCING A BROAD EAST TO WEST ORIENTED RIDGE
ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL. IN
THE TRADEWIND ZONE AND W OF 120W, WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH AND
SEAS ARE 7-8 FT IN NW SWELL. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND
W OF 110W THROUGH TUE, WHILE DRIFTING NE AND WEAKENING. THIS
PATTERN WILL PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, OCCASIONALLY
FRESH IN THE TRADE WIND ZONE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE NW PART OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH
NW WINDS, AND ADDITIONAL PULSES OF LARGE NW SWELL.
RAMOS
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