489
AXPZ20 KNHC 240941
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAR 24 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0920 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N84W TO 03N91W TO 02N104W. A
SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 00N110W TO 02N116W TO 03N125W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ONGOING FROM
01S TO 05N BETWEEN 85W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 01S TO 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 124W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SURFACE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N131W EXTENDS SE TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS
ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT IN
NW SWELL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA, WHILE
SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE NOTED ACROSS THE REMAINING BAJA CALIFORNIA
OFFSHORE WATERS. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS PERSIST WITH SEAS TO 2 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS
ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE JALISCO OFFSHORE WATERS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE MEXICAN WATERS, INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC,
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED
NW AND E SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH WED.
AFTERWARD, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW CONUS, RESULTING
IN A PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE, AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF FRESH NW
WINDS ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA OFFSHORE WATERS WED EVENING
THROUGH THU. THESE WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG
SPEEDS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA THU EVENING THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ROUGH
SEAS IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS WED NIGHT
THROUGH LATE SAT. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. MODERATE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS
NEAR CABO CORRIENTES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THROUGH TODAY. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION BY TUE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THU.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA, DIRECTLY SW OF A 1025 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SE OF BERMUDA. UNDER THIS WEATHER
PATTERN, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E PERSIST IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION
AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 10N90W. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE
ALSO FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO 05N. MODERATE SEAS OF 3 TO 4
FT PREVAIL THERE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
THROUGH FRI, THEN MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS FROM THE PAPAGAYO GAP WIND
EVENT WILL EXTEND TO THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND
EL SALVADOR THROUGH FRI. IN THE GULF OF PANAMA, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OTHERWISE,
LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A 1027 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR
34N131W. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
SUBTROPICAL WATERS, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL N OF 20N. IN THE
TRADEWIND ZONE AND W OF 121W, WINDS ARE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
AND SEAS ARE 6-8 FT IN NW SWELL. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND
W OF 110W THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS, OCCASIONALLY FRESH IN THE TRADE WIND ZONE. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW PART OF THE AREA LATE TUE
FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS, AND ADDITIONAL PULSES OF
LARGE NW SWELL. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N130W TO 26N140W WED
EVENING AND DISSIPATE THU MORNING.
RAMOS
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