697
AXPZ20 KNHC 241537
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAR 24 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N75W TO 01N82W. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH RUNS FROM 09N84W TO 02N95W TO 02N110W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 02N110W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N E OF 90W TO THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA, AND FROM 00N TO 04N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED ON 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED N OF THE
AREA NEAR 34N131W EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD TO BEYOND THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. THIS RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS N
OF CABO SAN LAZARO, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS BETWEEN CABO
SAN LAZARO AND CABO SAN LUCAS. SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA, WHILE SEAS OF 5 TO
7 FT ARE NOTED ACROSS THE REMAINING BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE
WATERS. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
PERSIST WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FT. MODERATE NW TO N WINDS ARE
SEEN ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING CABO CORRIENTES. A
RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION INDICATES NW WINDS OF 20 KT JUST OFFSHORE
CABO CORRIENTES. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE MEXICAN WATERS,
INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, GRADUALLY
WEAKENING THROUGH WED. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE GENTLE TO MODERATE
NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH WED. SEAS IN
THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF PUNTA
EUGENIA AND FAR OUTER WATERS OF CENTRAL BAJA THROUGH TONIGHT
WHILE SUBSIDING. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. MODERATE NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS NEAR CABO CORRIENTES TODAY.
LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION BY TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS
BY THU LEADING TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA, DIRECTLY SW OF A 1027 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. UNDER THIS WEATHER
PATTERN, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS PERSIST IN THE PAPAGAYO
REGION AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 09.5N91W. GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NE
WINDS ARE ALSO FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO ABOUT 06N. SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL THERE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE
WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
THROUGH THU. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 30 KT ARE EXPECTED AT NIGHT.
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD, ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 34N131W.
THIS IS PRODUCING A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION, AND DOMINATES
MOST OF THE WATERS N OF 10N AND W OF 110W WHERE A GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAIL WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT. WINDS INCREASE
TO FRESH SPEEDS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA DUE TO THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, AND IN THE TRADE WIND ZONE, ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE. E OF 110W, MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED
WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 110W
THROUGH TUE, WHILE DRIFTING NE AND WEAKENING. THIS PATTERN WILL
PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, OCCASIONALLY FRESH IN THE
TRADE WIND ZONE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS,
AND ADDITIONAL PULSES OF LARGE NW SWELL.
GR
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