474
AXPZ20 KNHC 242120
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAR 24 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N75W TO 01N82W. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH RUNS FROM 09N84W TO 02N95W TO 01N110W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 01N110W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN ABOUT 210 NM SE OF THE SECOND TROUGH BETWEEN
84W AND 96W. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED ON 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED N OF THE
AREA NEAR 34N131W EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. THIS RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND SUPPORTS GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS. SEAS
OF 6 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF PUNTA
EUGENIA, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS ACROSS THE FAR OUTER OFFSHORE
WATERS. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ALSO IN NW SWELL DOMINATE THE WATERS
BETWEEN CABO SAN LAZARO AND PUNTA EUGENIA WHILE SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT
ARE NOTED ACROSS THE REMAINING BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS.
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PERSIST WITH
SEAS IN THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE. MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS ARE
SEEN ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF JALISCO, JUST SOUTH OF CABO
CORRIENTES. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE MEXICAN WATERS,
INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, GRADUALLY
WEAKENING THROUGH WED AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE FAR NW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE GENTLE
TO MODERATE NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH
WED. SEAS IN THE 6 TO 9 FT RANGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS
N OF PUNTA EUGENIA THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE SUBSIDING. IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS NEAR CABO CORRIENTES THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION BY TUE NIGHT INTO WED
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 8 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS BY THU LEADING TO INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA, SW OF A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NE OF BERMUDA. UNDER THIS
WEATHER PATTERN, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS PERSIST IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 09.5N92W BASED ON SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND DATA. GENTLE N TO NE WINDS ARE FUNNELING INTO THE
GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD TO ABOUT 06N. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL THERE.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
THROUGH THU WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. IN THE GULF OF PANAMA,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD, ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 34N131W.
THIS IS PRODUCING A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION, AND DOMINATES
MOST OF THE WATERS N OF 10N AND W OF 110W WHERE A GENTLE TO
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAIL WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN
NW SWELL. WINDS INCREASE TO FRESH SPEEDS IN THE TRADE WIND ZONE,
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, PARTICULARLY W OF
130W. E OF 110W, MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED WITH
MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST WATERS THROUGH TUE NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING SOME. AT THE
SAME TIME, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS, AND
ADDITIONAL PULSES OF LARGE NW SWELL. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS, REACHING
FROM 30N135W TO 27N140W BY WED MORNING, AND FROM 30N128W TO
25N140W BY WED NIGHT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 11 OR 12 FT
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON WED. LOOKING AHEAD, SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO FURTHER BUILD UP TO 14 FT LATE ON THU MAINLY OVER THE WATERS
N OF 28N AND W OF 127W.
GR
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