400
AXPZ20 KNHC 250316
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAR 25 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 00N115W. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 03S122W TO 02N133W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 02S TO 08N BETWEEN
83W AND 98W. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED ON 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED N OF THE
AREA NEAR 33N132W EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD SOUTH OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND SUPPORTS GENTLE TO MODERATE NW
WINDS. SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN NW SWELL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS
N OF CABO SAN LAZARO, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS ACROSS THE FAR OUTER
OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT ALSO IN NW SWELL DOMINATE THE
WATERS BETWEEN CABO SAN LAZARO AND CABO SAN LUCAS WHILE SEAS OF
5 TO 7 FT ARE NOTED ACROSS THE REMAINING BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE
WATERS. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
VARIABLE WINDS PERSIST WITH SEAS IN THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE. MODERATE
NW TO N WINDS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF JALISCO,
JUST SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
MEXICAN WATERS, INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, LIGHT VARIABLE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH WED. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE GENTLE
TO MODERATE NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH
WED. SEAS IN THE 7 TO 8 FT RANGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS
N OF PUNTA EUGENIA AND FAR OUTER WATERS OF CENTRAL BAJA THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT WHILE SUBSIDING. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION TUE MORNING AND WED. LOOKING
AHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
WATERS BY THU, LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND SEAS 7 TO
9FT THU NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY DECREASE SAT NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA, SW OF A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NE OF BERMUDA. UNDER THIS
WEATHER PATTERN, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS PERSIST IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 10N88W. GENTLE N TO NE WINDS
ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO ABOUT 08N. SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL THERE. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 06N79W IS
SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE CYCLONIC FLOW WINDS SOUTH OF 08N.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
THROUGH FRI. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 30 KT ARE EXPECTED AT NIGHT.
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD, ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 33N132W.
THIS IS PRODUCING A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION, AND DOMINATES
MOST OF THE WATERS N OF 10N AND W OF 110W WHERE A GENTLE TO
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAIL WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN
NW SWELL. WINDS INCREASE TO FRESH SPEEDS IN THE TRADE WIND ZONE,
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
120W AND 130W. E OF 110W, MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
NOTED WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST WATERS THROUGH TUE NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING SOME. AT THE
SAME TIME, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS, AND
ADDITIONAL PULSES OF LARGE NW SWELL. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS, REACHING
FROM 30N135W TO 27N140W BY WED MORNING, AND FROM 30N130W TO
25N140W BY WED NIGHT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 11 OR 12 FT
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON WED. LOOKING AHEAD, SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO FURTHER BUILD UP TO 14 FT LATE ON THU MAINLY OVER THE WATERS
N OF 28N AND W OF 127W. SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO ROUGH IN A NW
SWELL BEGINNING THU NIGHT NORTH OF 23N AND WEST OF 120W. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL LIKE CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
KRV
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