157
AXPZ20 KNHC 250927
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAR 25 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
NEAR 05N79W TO 03S109W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02S126W TO 05S140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS DEPICTED
FROM 03S TO 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 99W. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE
HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED ON A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED N OF
THE AREA NEAR 37N130W EXTENDS NORTHWEST OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. THIS RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND SUPPORTS MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS
PER LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO.
SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN NW SWELL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF
CABO SAN LAZARO, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS ACROSS THE FAR OUTER
OFFSHORE WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS PREVAIL SOUTH OF
CABO SAN LUCAS WITH SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT ALSO IN NW SWELL DOMINATE
THE WATERS BETWEEN CABO SAN LAZARO AND CABO SAN LUCAS. SEAS OF 5
TO 7 FT ARE NOTED ACROSS THE REMAINING BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE
WATERS. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MAINLY LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS
PERSIST WITH SEAS IN THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE MEXICAN WATERS, INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, LIGHT
VARIABLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED NW AND SW
SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH WED. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE GENTLE
TO MODERATE NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH
WED. SEAS IN THE 7 TO 8 FT RANGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS
N OF PUNTA EUGENIA AND FAR OUTER WATERS OF CENTRAL BAJA THROUGH
THIS MORNING WHILE SUBSIDING. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION TUE MORNING AND WED. WHILE WINDS
WILL PULSE TO NEAR GALE FORCE TUE NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS BY
THU, LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS THU
NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY DECREASE SAT LATE NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA, SW OF A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NE OF BERMUDA. UNDER THIS
WEATHER PATTERN, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS PERSIST IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 10N88W. GENTLE N TO NE WINDS
ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO ABOUT 07N. SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL THERE. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 06N79W IS
SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE CYCLONIC FLOW WINDS SOUTH OF 07N.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
THROUGH FRI. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 30 KT ARE EXPECTED AT NIGHT.
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD, ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 33N132W.
THIS IS PRODUCING A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION, AND DOMINATES
MOST OF THE WATERS N OF 10N AND W OF 115W WHERE A GENTLE TO
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAIL WITH MODERATE SEAS IN NW
SWELL. WINDS INCREASE TO LOCALLY FRESH SPEEDS IN THE TRADE WIND
ZONE, ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, PARTICULARLY
BETWEEN 118W AND 122W AND 130W AND 140W. E OF 115W, MAINLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST WATERS THROUGH TUE NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING SOME. AT THE
SAME TIME, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS, AND
ADDITIONAL PULSES OF LARGE NW SWELL. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS, REACHING
FROM 30N135W TO 26N140W BY WED MORNING, AND FROM 30N130W TO
25N140W BY WED NIGHT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 11 OR 12 FT
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON WED. LOOKING AHEAD, SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO FURTHER BUILD UP TO 16 FT THU MAINLY OVER THE WATERS N OF 28N
AND W OF 126W. ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND REACH NORTH OF 21N AND WEST OF 120W BY FRI.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKE CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
KRV
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