445   
AXPZ20 KNHC 251720  
TWDEP   
  
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATE  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1605 UTC TUE MAR 25 2025  
  
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND  
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING  
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,  
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
  
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1500 UTC.  
  
UPDATED FORECAST PARAGRAPHS AT THE OFFHORE WATERS SECTIONS  
   
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH  
  
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR THE  
PANAMA-COLOMBIA BORDER ACROSS 00N100W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR   
04S110W. AN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05S86W TO 02N998W, AND FROM 02S126W  
TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 05S   
TO 06N BETWEEN 77W AND 100W, AND FROM 06S TO 04S AND WEST OF  
134W.  
   
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO  
  
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD   
FROM A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N132W TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO   
ISLANDS. THIS RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF   
BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND SUPPORTS MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS   
PER LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO. SEAS  
OF 6 TO 8 FT IN NW SWELL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF CABO   
SAN LAZARO, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS ACROSS THE FAR OUTER OFFSHORE   
WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS PREVAIL SOUTH OF CABO SAN   
LUCAS WITH SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT ALSO IN NW SWELL DOMINATE THE WATERS  
BETWEEN CABO SAN LAZARO AND CABO SAN LUCAS. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT   
ARE NOTED ACROSS THE REMAINING BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS.   
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MAINLY LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS PERSIST   
WITH SEAS IN THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE   
MEXICAN WATERS, INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, LIGHT VARIABLE  
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL   
PREVAIL.  
  
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL SUSTAIN   
GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA UNTIL   
WED, THEN CAUSE MODERATE TO FRESH WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS   
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS AT TEHUANTEPEC   
WILL BECOME STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE ON WED BEFORE SUBSIDING ON   
WED NIGHT. RESIDUAL NW SWELL IS GOING TO MAINTAIN ROUGH SEAS OFF   
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS THROUGH FRI.   
IN THE LONG TERM, A NEW SET OF LARGE NW SWELL RELATED TO A COLD   
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE SAME AREA BY   
SAT.   
  
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,   
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  
  
A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN  
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA, SW OF A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE   
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NE OF BERMUDA. UNDER THIS   
WEATHER PATTERN, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS PERSIST IN THE   
PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 10N88W. GENTLE N TO NE WINDS  
ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL   
CARIBBEAN, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO ABOUT 07N. SLIGHT TO MODERATE   
SEAS PREVAIL THERE. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 06N79W IS   
SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE CYCLONIC FLOW WINDS SOUTH OF 07N.   
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS   
PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.  
  
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE   
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO   
STRONG NE TO E WINDS AT THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH FRI. THESE   
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PEAK AT STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WED   
NIGHT THROUGH THU, WHICH WILL ALSO CAUSE ROUGH SEAS. IN THE GULF   
OF PANAMA, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT   
SEVERAL DAYS. IN THE LONG TERM, TRADES AT THE SOUTHWESTERN   
CARIBBEAN SHOULD SUBSIDE ON SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS AT THE   
PAPAGAYO REGION TO DECREASE.  
   
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.  
  
A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 33N132W.  
THIS IS PRODUCING A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION, AND DOMINATES  
MOST OF THE WATERS N OF 10N AND W OF 115W WHERE A GENTLE TO   
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAIL WITH MODERATE SEAS IN NW   
SWELL. WINDS INCREASE TO LOCALLY FRESH SPEEDS IN THE TRADE WIND   
ZONE, ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, PARTICULARLY   
BETWEEN 118W AND 122W AND 130W AND 140W. E OF 115W, MAINLY   
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED WITH MODERATE SEAS.   
  
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE  
FORECAST WATERS THROUGH TUE NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING SOME. AT THE   
SAME TIME, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST PART   
OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS, AND  
ADDITIONAL PULSES OF LARGE NW SWELL. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO   
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS, REACHING   
FROM 30N135W TO 26N140W BY WED MORNING, AND FROM 30N130W TO   
25N140W BY WED NIGHT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 11 OR 12 FT   
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON WED. LOOKING AHEAD, SEAS ARE FORECAST  
TO FURTHER BUILD UP TO 16 FT THU MAINLY OVER THE WATERS N OF 28N  
AND W OF 126W. ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE  
SOUTHEASTWARD AND REACH NORTH OF 21N AND WEST OF 120W BY FRI.   
THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKE CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
  
  
  
CHAN  
 
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