467
AXPZ20 KNHC 260847
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAR 26 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
UPDATED FORECAST PARAGRAPH IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS SECTION FOR
CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA AND NEAR ECUADOR
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1011 MB LOW NEAR
06N78W TO 02N109W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N114W TO 01N140W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM
02N TO 07N BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE AND 93W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM A 1021 MB HIGH
NEAR 25N128W TO THE SOUTHEAST OF REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS
RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
CENTRAL MEXICO, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS PER
THE LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS 6 TO 7 FT IN
MODERATE NW SWELL. FRESH TO STRONG TO LOCALLY NEAR-GALE NORTHERLY
WINDS WITH SEAS 5 TO 7 FT ARE PRESENT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED
MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN MEXICO
OFFSHORE WATERS. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS
AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUSTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA UNTIL
TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS AT THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL BECOME STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE BRIEFLY EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE SUBSIDING TONIGHT. RESIDUAL NW SWELL IS GOING TO MAINTAIN
MODERATE SEAS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS THROUGH FRI. LOOKING AHEAD, A NEW HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT, WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
THU AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONALLY,
A NEW SET OF LARGE NW SWELL RELATED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE SAME AREA BY
FRI.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
ARE SUSTAINING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ALONG WITH 5 TO 7
FT SEAS OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION, AND THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA/EL SALVADOR. MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY GENTLE NW TO NE WINDS AND SEAS AT 3 TO
4 FT DOMINATE OFFSHORES OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA. NEAR
THE GALAPAGOS ISLAND AND ECUADOR, MAINLY GENTLE WEST WINDS AND 4
TO 6 FT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG NE TO E WINDS AT THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH SAT,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO
CAUSE MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGIONAL OFFSHORE WATERS,
AND AT THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN OFFSHORE WATERS OF EL SALVADOR. IN
THE GULF OF PANAMA, GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD,
TRADES AT THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD SUBSIDE ON SAT WHICH
WILL ALLOW WINDS AT THE PAPAGAYO REGION TO DECREASE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N137W SOUTHWESTWARD TO 28N140W.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS PREVAIL ALONG
WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY FRESH NW WINDS
PREVAIL. OTHERWISE, A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 25N128W TO THE SOUTHEAST OF REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC
RETURN FLOW NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 120W. SEAS IN THE REGION
ARE BETWEEN 6 TO 8 FT IN MODERATE NW SWELL. FROM 20N SOUTHWARD
TO NEAR THE ITCZ, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS WITH 6 TO 8 FT
SEAS ARE SEEN WEST OF 116W. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO NE WINDS
WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS ARE PRESENT
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE EAST
PACIFIC TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH FRI. LARGE NW SWELL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE SEAS NORTH OF 16N TO BUILD
AND BECOME VERY ROUGH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FRONT
WILL REACH FROM 30N130W TO 25N140W TONIGHT, AND FROM 30N127W TO
25N140W BY THU MORNING. AS THIS FRONT GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK, DECAYING NW SWELL SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE.
KRV
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