679
AXPZ20 KNHC 270900
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAR 27 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0852 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 02N104W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 06N109W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS DEPICTED FROM 02S TO 07N EAST OF 118W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS, WINDS HAVE
DECREASED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS PREVAIL. ELSEWHERE, A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N129W.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS PER LATEST ASCAT OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. SEAS WITHIN THESE WINDS ARE OF 6 TO 8 FT. LOCALLY
MODERATE SW WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE FAR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF
OF CALIFORNIA, WITH GENTLE WINDS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
GULF. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5
TO 6 FT PREVAIL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND A LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE
SW CONUS. AS A RESULT, WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG SPEEDS TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. A LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD
FRI MORNING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS IN EXCESS
OF 8 FT OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY FRI MORNING, AND BY
FRI AFTERNOON OVER THE OFFSHORE WATER OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
THIS SWELL WILL REACH THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
SAT NIGHT. PEAK SEAS OF 10 TO 13 FT WILL IMPACT AREAS NORTH OF
CABO SAN LAZARO FRI MORNING THROUGH SAT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS 4 TO 7 FT WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO PER LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND TROUGHING
NORTH OF THE REGION ARE RESPONSIBLE OF THESE WINDS. LOCALLY
MODERATE SEAS IN NE SWELL ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SAME AREA.
PULSING FRESH N WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. OTHERWISE,
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT IN S
SWELL ARE OCCURRING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING EACH EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. LOCALLY MODERATE SEAS IN NE SWELL WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
WINDS. FARTHER EAST, N WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, MODERATE SEAS IN
S TO SW SWELL WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH AMERICA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N126W TO 26N135W THEN IT BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AS A STATIONARY FRONT AND EXTENDS TO 25N140W. GENTLE
TO MODERATE NW WINDS ARE OCCURRING TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT.
ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF 26N AND WEST OF
131W. OTHERWISE, A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N129W EXTENDS
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS. MODERATE TO
FRESH NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE,
FROM NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 20N, GENERALLY WEST OF 110W. SEAS
WITHIN THIS WINDS ARE BETWEEN 8 TO 10 FT. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO
LOCALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FT PREVAIL OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE IT WEAKENS. A
LONG- PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL EXPAND
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND,
SUPPORTING SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT NORTH OF 22N AND WEST OF 122W
THROUGH TONIGHT, AND NORTH OF 18N AND WEST OF 115W THROUGH FRI
MORNING. PEAK SEAS OF 12 TO 17 FT ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF 24N
BETWEEN 120W AND 140W THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT MORNING.
ELSEWHERE, FRESH NE WINDS GENERATED BY GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO WILL EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS 07N93W TODAY
THROUGH FRI. OTHERWISE, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT AND RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
BETWEEN 05N AND 20N WEST OF 123W, WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD FRESH
WINDS OCCURRING FRI INTO SAT. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT IS
SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS WATERS THIS
WEEKEND, LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
KRV
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