267
AXPZ20 KNHC 271600
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAR 27 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 02N82W TO 03N97W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N97W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING SOUTH OF 09N AND EAST
OF 91W, AND FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 104W AND 120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A TROUGH HAS BEEN ANALYZED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD
THROUGH JALISCO, AND A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N130W.
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AS A RESULT OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES, AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED OFFSHORE OF CABO SAN
LUCAS. ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT PREVAIL ACROSS THESE WATERS.
ELSEWHERE, LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS ARE PULSING IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS AND SEAS OF 4
TO 6 FT ARE OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WHILE
GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE NOTED THROUGH THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS WILL OCCUR OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY. LOCALLY STRONG
NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO THIS
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN TROUGHING
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN WATERS FRI MORNING, AND WIDESPREAD FRESH TO STRONG
NW WINDS WILL OCCUR OFFSHORE OF THE PENINSULA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT INTO EARLY SAT. A LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL PROMOTE ROUGH SEAS IN THIS REGION THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO ON SAT. PEAK SEAS OF 12 TO 14 FT
CAN BE EXPECTED NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO EARLY FRI THROUGH SAT.
SEAS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS TO 7 FT ARE OCCURRING THROUGH
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING AS TROUGHING PREVAILS NORTH OF
THE REGION, AND LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA.
ELSEWHERE, RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA DEPICTS MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA, AND MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS FARTHER SOUTH OFFSHORE OF
ECUADOR. SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT IN A LONG-PERIOD S HEMISPHERE SWELL
ARE NOTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, WIDESPREAD FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL
PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE CONFINED TO JUST OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA THIS WEEKEND,
PULSING TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SPEEDS. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH
FRI MORNING, WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE WINDS OCCURRING THIS
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, A NEW LONG-PERIOD S HEMISPHERE SWELL IS
SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AMERICA FRI INTO THIS WEEKEND, PROMOTING SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT HAS BEEN ANALYZED FROM 30N126W TO 26N135W, AND
CONTINUES AS A TROUGH TO 24N140W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW
WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THIS FRONT, AS SEEN FROM RECENT
SOFAR BUOY DATA. A LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 22N AND WEST OF 127W,
WITH PEAK SEAS OF 12 TO 16 FT NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 129W AND 140W.
FARTHER SOUTH, A RESIDUAL NW SWELL IS SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS OF 8
TO 10 FT NORTH OF THE EQUATOR TO 20N, GENERALLY WEST OF 115W.
OTHERWISE, A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N130W EXTENDS RIDGING
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS, AND GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, FROM 05N TO 20N WEST
OF 110W. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT
ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE ITCZ.
FOR THE FORECAST, A LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL EXPAND ROUGH SEAS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THIS WEEKEND. ROUGH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS NORTH OF THE EQUATOR
AND WEST OF 110W. PEAK SEAS OF 12 TO 16 FT WILL OCCUR NORTH OF
23N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W TODAY THROUGH SAT MORNING. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRI BEFORE DISSIPATING, AND MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
ELSEWHERE, FRESH NE WINDS GENERATED BY GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO WILL EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS 08N92W THROUGH FRI.
OTHERWISE, A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ITCZ
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
TO FRESH NE WINDS FROM 05N TO 20N WEST OF 110W TODAY THROUGH SAT,
BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A
COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS ON
SAT, SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SW WINDS NORTH OF 28N SAT
INTO SUN.
ADAMS
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