917
AXPZ20 KNHC 280319
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI MAR 28 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 02N82W TO 01N100W. AN
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 00N101W TO BEYOND 03S140W. A SECOND ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 04N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING SOUTH OF 10N AND EAST OF 97W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A TROUGH HAS BEEN ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO, AND WEAK RIDGING
EXTENDS OVER THE REST OF THE MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS, WHILE A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS
6 TO 8 FT. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS AND SEAS OF 4
TO 6 FT ARE OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WHILE
GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE NOTED THROUGH THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THE COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS
FRI MORNING AS IT WEAKENS, AND WIDESPREAD FRESH TO STRONG NW
WINDS WILL OCCUR OFFSHORE OF THE PENINSULA IN THE WAKE OF THE
DISSIPATING FRONT INTO EARLY SAT. A LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE ROUGH SEAS IN THIS REGION
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT EXPANDING
SOUTHEASTWARD TO OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO ON SAT. PEAK
SEAS OF 12 TO 13 FT CAN BE EXPECTED NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO
EARLY FRI THROUGH SAT. SEAS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS TO 6 FT ARE OCCURRING
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N
WINDS ARE NOTED THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA. MODERATE SW TO W
WINDS ARE FOUND FARTHER SOUTH OFFSHORE OF ECUADOR. SEAS OF 3 TO
6 FT IN A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ARE NOTED ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, WIDESPREAD FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL
PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE CONFINED TO JUST OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA THIS WEEKEND,
PULSING TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SPEEDS. ELSEWHERE, FRESH N
WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH FRI MORNING, WITH
OCCASIONAL MODERATE WINDS OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, A
NEW LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA FRI INTO THIS
WEEKEND, PROMOTING SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT HAS BEEN ANALYZED FROM 30N120W TO 25N140W. GENTLE TO
LOCALLY MODERATE NW WINDS ARE FOUND NORTH OF THIS FRONT. A LONG-
PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING ROUGH
SEAS NORTH OF 22N AND WEST OF 122W, WITH PEAK SEAS OF 12 TO 16
FT NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 125W AND 140W. FARTHER SOUTH, A RESIDUAL
NW SWELL IS SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT NORTH OF THE
EQUATOR TO 16N, GENERALLY WEST OF 114W. RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, FROM 05N TO 20N WEST
OF 110W. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT
IN S SWELL ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF A TROUGH AND THE ITCZ.
FOR THE FORECAST, A LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL EXPAND ROUGH SEAS
SOUTHEASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. ROUGH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS NORTH OF THE EQUATOR AND
WEST OF 110W. PEAK SEAS OF 12 TO 16 FT WILL OCCUR NORTH OF 23N
BETWEEN 120W AND 140W THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE TONIGHT, AND GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE NE WINDS GENERATED BY GAP WINDS IN THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO WILL EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS 08N95W THROUGH
FRI. OTHERWISE, A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
ITCZ AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS FROM 05N TO 20N WEST OF 110W THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING
AHEAD, A COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
WATERS ON SAT, SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SW WINDS NORTH
OF 29N SAT INTO SUN.
KRV
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