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AXPZ20 KNHC 280910
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAR 28 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0901 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
07N89W TO 01N103W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 01N103W TO 03S140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS DEPICTED
ALONG THE TROUGH.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A TROUGH HAS BEEN ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO, AND WEAK RIDGING
EXTENDS OVER THE REST OF THE MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS, WHILE A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N118W TO 28N120W. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
NW WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WITH SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS AND
SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT ARE OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO,
WHILE LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE NOTED THROUGH THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS WILL PREVAIL TODAY OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THE COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS
THIS MORNING AS IT WEAKENS, AND WIDESPREAD FRESH TO STRONG NW
WINDS WILL OCCUR OFFSHORE OF THE PENINSULA IN THE WAKE OF THE
DISSIPATING FRONT INTO SAT MORNING. A LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE ROUGH SEAS IN THIS REGION
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT EXPANDING
SOUTHEASTWARD TO OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO ON SAT. PEAK
SEAS OF 11 TO 13 FT CAN BE EXPECTED NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO
EARLY TODAY THROUGH SAT. SEAS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS TO 7 FT ARE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS
OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
N WINDS ARE NOTED THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA. FARTHER SOUTH,
SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT IN A LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL ARE NOTED ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS BETWEEN EL SALVADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, WIDESPREAD FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL
PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ALONG WITH GENTLE SEAS THROUGH SAT
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONFINED TO JUST OFFSHORE OF
NICARAGUA THIS WEEKEND, PULSING TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SPEEDS
AT NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, FRESH N WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA THROUGH TODAY, WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE WINDS OCCURRING
THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, A LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL ARE MOVING
THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA,
PROMOTING SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT. THESE SWELL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT HAS BEEN ANALYZED FROM 30N118W TO 24N131W. GENTLE
TO LOCALLY MODERATE NW WINDS ARE FOUND NORTH OF THIS FRONT PER
LATEST SATELLITE WIND DERIVED. A LONG- PERIOD NW SWELL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 19N
AND WEST OF 120W, WITH PEAK SEAS OF 12 TO 18 FT NORTH OF 22N
BETWEEN 121W AND 140W. RECENT OBSERVATION FROM SOFAR BUOYS
CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE SEAS. FARTHER SOUTH, A RESIDUAL
NW SWELL IS SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT NORTH OF THE
EQUATOR TO 17N, GENERALLY WEST OF 109W. RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, FROM 04N TO 20N WEST
OF 110W. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT
IN S SWELL ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF A TROUGH AND THE ITCZ.
FOR THE FORECAST, A LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL EXPAND ROUGH SEAS
SOUTHEASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN EXCESS
OF 13 FT WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS NORTH OF THE
EQUATOR AND WEST OF 110W. PEAK SEAS OF 12 TO 18 FT WILL OCCUR
NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BEGINNING SAT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING TONIGHT, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE
NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE NE WINDS GENERATED BY GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
WILL EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS 08N97W THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE ITCZ AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS FROM 05N TO 20N
WEST OF 110W THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS ON SAT, LIKELY SUPPORTING FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG SW WINDS NORTH OF 29N SAT INTO SUN.
KRV
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