077
AXPZ20 KNHC 282115 CCA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAR 28 2025
CORRECTED ITZC/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELL WITH
PERIOD OF 13-15 SECONDS HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT. THE
RESULTANT OF 12 FT OR GREATER COVER THE AREA NORTH OF 23N AND
WEST OF 119W, WITH PEAK SEAS REACHING TO AROUND 16 FT NEAR
30N130W. THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO
BELOW 12 FT ON SAT OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA
WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA, OR NORTH OF 28N EAST OF 120W.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
CORRECTED
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHWEST COLOMBIA
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N78W TO 05N80W TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR 07N90W
1008 MB TO 02N96W AND TO 02N104W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N104W
TO 02N102W TO 03N130W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AND LOW BETWEEN
89W-91W, AND WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH AND ITCZ BETWEEN
99W-107W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 135W-138W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A TROUGH HAS BEEN ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO, AND WEAK RIDGING
EXTENDS OVER THE REST OF THE MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS, WHILE A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N118W TO 28N120W. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
NW WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WITH SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS AND
SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT ARE OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO,
WHILE LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE NOTED THROUGH THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS WILL PREVAIL TODAY OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THE COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS
THIS MORNING AS IT WEAKENS, AND WIDESPREAD FRESH TO STRONG NW
WINDS WILL OCCUR OFFSHORE OF THE PENINSULA IN THE WAKE OF THE
DISSIPATING FRONT INTO SAT MORNING. A LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE ROUGH SEAS IN THIS REGION
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT EXPANDING
SOUTHEASTWARD TO OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO ON SAT. PEAK
SEAS OF 11 TO 13 FT CAN BE EXPECTED NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO
EARLY TODAY THROUGH SAT. SEAS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS TO 7 FT ARE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS
OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
N WINDS ARE NOTED THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA. FARTHER SOUTH,
SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT IN A LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL ARE NOTED ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS BETWEEN EL SALVADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, WIDESPREAD FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL
PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ALONG WITH GENTLE SEAS THROUGH SAT
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONFINED TO JUST OFFSHORE OF
NICARAGUA THIS WEEKEND, PULSING TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SPEEDS
AT NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, FRESH N WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA TODAY, WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE WINDS OCCURRING THIS
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, A LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA, PROMOTING SEAS OF
4 TO 7 FT. THESE SWELL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT THAT IS IMPACTING THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL WATERS.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO
NEAR 26N120W AND TO 24N121W. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS ARE
NORTH OF THE FRONT. BROAD RIDGING, ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH
CENTER JUST NORTH OF THE ARE NEAR 32N140W, CONTROLS THE GENERAL
WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, FROM 04N TO 20N WEST
OF 110W. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT
IN S SWELL ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF A TROUGH AND THE ITCZ. OTHER
THAN SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SIGNIFICANT SWELL DESCRIBED ABOVE,
SATELLITE DATA PASSES SHOW SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL
NORTH OF 04N AND WEST OF WEST OF ABOUT 110W. RIDGING EXTENDS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL EXPAND ROUGH SEAS
SOUTHEASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN EXCESS
OF 13 FT WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS NORTH OF THE
EQUATOR AND WEST OF 110W. PEAK SEAS OF 12 TO 18 FT WILL OCCUR
NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BEGINNING SAT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING TONIGHT, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE
NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE NE WINDS GENERATED BY GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
WILL EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS 08N97W THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE ITCZ AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS FROM 05N TO 20N
WEST OF 110W THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS ON SAT, LIKELY SUPPORTING FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG SW WINDS NORTH OF 29N SAT INTO SUN.
AGUIRRE
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