341
AXPZ20 KNHC 282201
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAR 28 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELL WITH A
PERIOD OF 14-16 SECONDS IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE AREA. SEAS OF 12 FT OR GREATER ARE
OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 116W AND 137W, WITH PEAK
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HIGHTS REACHING TO 15 FT NEAR 30N130W AS NOTED
IN A RECENT SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA PASS. THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO BELOW 12 FT ON SAT OVER THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA, OR ROUGHLY NORTH OF ABOUT 28N AND EAST OF 120W.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHWEST COLOMBIA
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N78W TO 05N80W TO 06N85W TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR
07N91W 1008 MB TO 03N97W AND TO 03N104W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
03N104W TO 03N116W TO 03N126W AND NORTHWESTWARD TO BEYOND
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
SEEN WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN
88W-92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 98W-105W, AND WITHIN 30 NM NORTH OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 80W-87W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A TROUGH IS INLAND CENTRAL MEXICO WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVER THE REST OF THE MEXICO OFFSHORE WATER. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE TROUGH IS ALLOWING
FOR FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS TO REMAIN OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ALONG WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 12
FT IN NW SWELL, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FT NORTH OF
PUNTA EUGENIA. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WHILE
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS OFFSHORE OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SEAS 8 FT AND GREATER WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD TO
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BY LATE SAT. PEAK SEAS UP 13 FT
ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TONIGHT THROUGH SAT. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH MON, THEN
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR OFFSHORE SOUTHERN MEXICO
INTO MID-WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS TO 7 FT ARE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS
OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
N WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. FARTHER SOUTH, SEAS OF
3 TO 6 FT IN A LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL ARE ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS BETWEEN EL SALVADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO AND WEST FROM THERE TO NEAR 10N92W WILL DIMINISH BY
EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN PULSE BACK UP TO FRESH TO STRONG LATE
TONIGHT AND DIMINISH TO MODERATE SPEEDS SAT AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE,
FRESH WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE
SPEEDS SAT AND CHANGE LITTLE GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE,
LONG-PERIOD S TO SW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA IS PRODUCING SEAS TO AROUND 7 FT. THIS
SWELL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE SUBSIDING A
LITTLE AFTERWARD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT THAT IS IMPACTING THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL WATERS.
BROAD RIDGING, ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTER JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA NEAR 32N138W, CONTROLS THE GENERAL WIND PATTERN ACROSS
THE BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, FROM ABOUT 03N TO 20N WEST OF 115W, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 06N TO 15N
BETWEEN 120W AND 132W AND FROM 06N TO 12N WEST OF 132W. EXCEPT
AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER SPECIAL FEATURES, SEAS OVER THIS AREA
ARE 8 TO 11 FT IN LONG-PERIOD NW TO N SWELL AS HIGHLIGHTED IN
AN ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND WHILE LOSING ITS ENERGY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
8 FT OR GREATER SEAS IS EXPECTED TO REACH TO NEAR 08N105W BY
LATE ON SUN. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE NE TO E WINDS GENERATED BY GAP
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL PULSE WESTWARD TO NEAR 08N100W
BY LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS FROM 03N TO
20N WEST OF 110W THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE 1026 MB HIGH
CENTER IS FORCED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD BY A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THAT SKIRTS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT SAT
THROUGH EARLY SUN ALONG WITH SEAS TO 8 FT.
AGUIRRE
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