824
AXPZ20 KNHC 290446 AAA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAR 29 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
UPDATED THE FORECAST PARAGRAPH FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS SECTIONS
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:
RESIDUAL LARGE, LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL MAINTAIN SEAS OF 12 TO
13 FT WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE, NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 115W
AND 131W THROUGH SAT MORNING. AS THE NW SWELL DECAYS FURTHER,
SEAS ARE GOING TO DROP BELOW 12 FT BY SAT NOON. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR THE
PANAMA-COLOMBIA BORDER TO A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 05N92W TO 03N106W.
AN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N106W ACROSS 02N116W TO 03S124W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN
80W AND 115W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A TROUGH IS INLAND CENTRAL MEXICO WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVER THE REST OF THE MEXICO OFFSHORE WATER. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE TROUGH IS ALLOWING
FOR FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS TO REMAIN OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ALONG WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 12
FT IN NW SWELL, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FT NORTH OF
PUNTA EUGENIA. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WHILE
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL SUSTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW TO N WINDS
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, NORTH OF PUERTO MAGDALENA THROUGH
TUE. FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF PUERTO MAGDALENA AND NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THRU MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. LARGE, LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL IS
GOING TO KEEP ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS THROUGH MON MORNING BEFORE
SUBSIDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTERWARD. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO
NE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO
INTO NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS TO 7 FT ARE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS
OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
N WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. FARTHER SOUTH, SEAS OF
3 TO 6 FT IN A LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL ARE ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS BETWEEN EL SALVADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AND WEST FROM THERE TO NEAR 10N92W WILL DIMINISH SAT
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, FRESH WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL
DIMINISH TO MODERATE SAT AND CHANGE LITTLE GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE, LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA IS PRODUCING SEAS TO AROUND 7
FT. THIS SWELL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
SUBSIDING A LITTLE AFTERWARD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT THAT IS IMPACTING THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL WATERS.
BROAD RIDGING, ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTER JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA NEAR 32N138W, CONTROLS THE GENERAL WIND PATTERN ACROSS
THE BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, FROM ABOUT 03N TO 20N WEST OF 115W, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 06N TO 15N
BETWEEN 120W AND 132W AND FROM 06N TO 12N WEST OF 132W. EXCEPT
AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER SPECIAL FEATURES, SEAS OVER THIS AREA
ARE 8 TO 11 FT IN LONG-PERIOD NW TO N SWELL AS HIGHLIGHTED IN
AN ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND WHILE LOSING ITS ENERGY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
8 FT OR GREATER SEAS IS EXPECTED TO REACH TO NEAR 08N105W BY
LATE ON SUN. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE NE TO E WINDS GENERATED BY GAP
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL PULSE WESTWARD TO NEAR 08N100W
BY LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS FROM 03N TO
20N WEST OF 110W THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE 1026 MB HIGH
CENTER IS FORCED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD BY A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THAT SKIRTS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT SAT
THROUGH EARLY SUN ALONG WITH SEAS TO 8 FT.
CHAN
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