285
AXPZ20 KNHC 080143
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON APR 7 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0050 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
SURGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS OF
MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A RECENT STRONG LATE-SEASON GULF OF
AMERICA COLD FRONT. GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE IN THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION UP TO 40 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO UP TO 14 FT.
PEAK WINDS MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY UP TO 45 KT OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TUE NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR PEAK SEAS TO BUILD SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 16
FT BY LATE TUE NIGHT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
WED AFTERNOON, THEN PULSE BACK TO GALE LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU
MORNING, LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING, THEN MORE STEADILY
GALE STARTING FRI NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN. SEAS MAY PEAK AT
AROUND 16 FT AGAIN BY EARLY SAT. PLEASE REFER TO THE THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/ MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
COLOMBIA NEAR 09N74W TO ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE BORDER OF
ECUADOR AT 01.5N79W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS WELL TO THE WEST
EXTENDING FROM 06N106W TO 02N128W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N128W
TO BEYOND 00N139W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 01N TO 08N BETWEEN 79W AND 92W, FROM 01S TO 03.4S
BETWEEN 98W AND 110W, FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 101W AND 106W, AND
FROM 03N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 106W AND 117W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
AN ONGOING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING AS WELL AS GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENT OVER THE WATERS WEST OF MEXICO AS A
TROUGH IS ANALYZED JUST INLAND MEXICO EAST OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THE RESULTANT GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE IN THE
NORTHERN OF GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS
ARE OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO, AND GENTLE
TO MODERATE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO
OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION. A SET OF LARGE NW
SWELL WITH SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT IS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE,
WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
REGION. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, AND 3 FT OR LESS IN THE NORTHERN GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC DISCUSSED ABOVE, MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WATERS
THROUGH TUE NIGHT, WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, LOCALLY
STRONG. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WINDS MAY INCREASE BRIEFLY TO MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE SAT AND SAT NIGHT
DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE, LARGE AND ROUGH NW
SWELL OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST TO
110W THROUGH TUE, DECAYING THEREAFTER. SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL BUILD
SEAS TO ROUGH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING THU, THEN SUBSIDING BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER SET OF LARGE AND ROUGH NW SWELL MAY
IMPACT THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE LACK OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION IS
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE TO EXIST THERE. SEAS ARE 6
FT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THESE OFFSHORE WATERS, HIGHEST FROM
OFFSHORE ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION WILL
BECOME NE TO E AT FRESH TO STRONG WED MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, THEN PULSING TO STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WED NIGHT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH SEAS REACHING ROUGH WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LARGE
NW SWELL FROM A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT
WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS OFFSHORE GUATEMALA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WED EVENING, THEN AGAIN THU AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST
SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL BUILD IN SW
SWELL FROM OFFSHORE ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WED, THEN
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, REACHING ROUGH, EXCEPT IN
THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
NW SWELL OF 8 TO 12 FT, HIGHEST NEAR 16N138W, COVERS THE WATERS
WEST OF A LINE FROM NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA TO 13N123W TO 03N135W.
SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL. MEANWHILE, A
BROAD RIDGE IS FROM 30N133W TO 26N140W AND WINDS BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND NORTH OF 05N SUPPORTS
SPEEDS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE EXTENSIVE AFOREMENTIONED NW SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN WATERS
WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH LATE WED. A FRONT MAY MOVE INTO
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH MODERATE
TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS BEHIND IT, ALONG WITH SEAS OF 7 TO AROUND
10 FT IN LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL. ALSO, LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL PROMOTE ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF ABOUT 05N
STARTING ON TUE. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE LATE IN THE WEEK AFTER ITS EASTERN PORTION MERGES WITH
SWELL GENERATED BY AN UPCOMING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT.
LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS MAY FRESHEN AGAIN WEST OF 130W LATE FRI INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THERE.
LEWITSKY
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