293
AXPZ20 KNHC 080747
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE APR 8 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0710 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
SURGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS OF
MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A RECENT STRONG LATE-SEASON GULF OF
AMERICA COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED NEAR THE EASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE IN THE TEHUANTEPEC
REGION AS MEASURED BY AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS WHICH
SHOWED 30 TO 40 KT WINDS. GIVEN A LOW BIAS IN THE INSTRUMENT
AROUND THESE SPEEDS, PEAK WINDS OF UP TO 45 KT ARE POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL PEAK AT 14 TO 16 FT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SURGE UP
TO 45 KT IS POSSIBLE. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
WED AFTERNOON, THEN PULSE BACK TO GALE LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU
MORNING, THEN MORE STEADILY AND CONTINUOUSLY LATE THU NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUN. SEAS MAY PEAK AT AROUND 16 FT AGAIN BY EARLY
SAT. PLEASE REFER TO THE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/ MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO ALONG THE COAST NEAR 05.5N76W. AN ITCZ
SEGMENT IS ANALYZED FROM 04.5N92W TO 03N104W. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH IS TO THE WEST FROM 07N109W TO THE EQUATOR AT 126W.
ANOTHER ITCZ SEGMENT IS ANALYZED ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 126W
AND 137W BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 90W AND 101W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180
NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR SOUTH OF 06N, FROM 01S
TO 03.4S BETWEEN 96.5W AND 100W, FROM 00N TO 04N BETWEEN 101W AND
106.5W, AND FROM 01.5N TO 09N BETWEEN 106W AND 120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
AN ONGOING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING AS WELL AS GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENT OVER THE WATERS WEST OF MEXICO AS A
TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WITH A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE TROUGH
ANALYZED NEAR 27.5N110W. THE RESULTANT GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR
GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO PER RECENT ASCAT DATA, AND LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
MEXICO, OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION. A SET OF
LARGE NW SWELL WITH SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT IS OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO, WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN OLD
SW AND NW SWELLS ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
REGION. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, AND 3 FT OR LESS IN THE NORTHERN GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC DISCUSSED ABOVE, MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT, WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS IN THE CENTRAL
GULF OF CALIFORNIA CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE THROUGH FRI
NIGHT. WINDS MAY INCREASE BRIEFLY TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE SAT AND SAT NIGHT DUE TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE, LARGE AND ROUGH NW SWELL
OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST TO 110W
THROUGH TODAY, DECAYING THEREAFTER. SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL BUILD
SEAS TO ROUGH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING THU, THEN SUBSIDING BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER SET OF LARGE AND ROUGH NW SWELL MAY
IMPACT THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
ACTIVE CONVECTION IS ALONG AND OFFSHORE THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA
AND ECUADOR SOUTH OF 06N AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. MODERATE OFFSHORE
WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF PANAMA, WHILE
THE LACK OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT ELSEWHERE IS ALLOWING FOR LIGHT
TO GENTLE VARIABLE PER EARLIER ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS ARE
2 TO 4 FT OFFSHORE EASTERN PANAMA AND COLOMBIA, AND 3 TO 5 FT
ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT 4 TO 6 FT OFFSHORE ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION WILL
BECOME NE TO E AT FRESH TO STRONG WED MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, THEN PULSING TO STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WED NIGHT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH SEAS REACHING ROUGH WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LARGE
NW SWELL FROM A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT
WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS OFFSHORE GUATEMALA TODAY THROUGH
WED EVENING, THEN AGAIN THU AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST SAT NIGHT.
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL BUILD IN SW SWELL FROM
OFFSHORE ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WED, THEN NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, REACHING ROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WATERS, EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
NW SWELL OF 8 TO 11 FT COVERS THE WATERS WEST OF A LINE FROM
NEAR CABO SAN LAZARO TO 10N124W TO 02N133W. SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT
IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL ELSEWHERE. MEANWHILE, A BROAD RIDGE IS
OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE WATERS
NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND NORTH OF 03N TO AROUND 22N/23N SUPPORTS
SPEEDS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE EXTENSIVE AFOREMENTIONED NW SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN WATERS
WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH LATE WED. A FRONT MAY MOVE INTO
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH MODERATE
TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS BEHIND IT, ALONG WITH SEAS OF 7 TO AROUND
10 FT IN LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL. ALSO, LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL PROMOTE ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF ABOUT 05N
STARTING LATER TODAY. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE IN THE WEEK AFTER ITS EASTERN PORTION
MERGES WITH SWELL GENERATED BY AN UPCOMING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
GALE EVENT. LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS MAY FRESHEN AGAIN WEST OF 130W
LATE FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION THERE.
LEWITSKY
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