239
AXPZ20 KNHC 081536
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE APR 08 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
SURGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS OF
MEXICO. A 1022 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED INLAND MEXICO NEAR 24N101W.
THE RESULTANT TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
PRESSURE FOUND SOUTH OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING STRONG GALE-FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION AS VERIFIED BY AN
OVERNIGHT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS THAT SHOWED 30 TO 40 KT WINDS,
AND ALSO FROM A SHIP THAT REPORTED 45 KT WHILE IN A WEST-
NORTHWEST HEADING SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING.
PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS WITH THESE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT AROUND 16
FT. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH WED AFTERNOON,
THEN PULSE BACK TO GALE LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING, THEN
MORE STEADILY AND CONTINUOUSLY LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN.
SEAS MAY PEAK AT AROUND 16 FT AGAIN BY EARLY SAT. PLEASE REFER
TO THE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE: HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/
MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN
COLOMBIA NEAR 08N75W TO ALONG THE COAST NEAR 05.5N76W. AN ITCZ
SEGMENT IS ANALYZED FROM 04.5N92W TO 03N104W. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH IS TO THE WEST FROM 07N109W TO THE EQUATOR AT 126W.
ANOTHER ITCZ SEGMENT IS ANALYZED ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 126W
AND 137W BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
109W-120W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
SEEN WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 90W-94W, AND WITHIN
120 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 101W-104W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
AN ONGOING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING AS WELL AS GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENT OVER THE WATERS WEST OF MEXICO WHILE
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SOUTHWARD TO ACROSS
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE RESULTANT GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR
GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO, OUTSIDE OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION. A SET OF LARGE NW SWELL PRODUCING
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 10 FT IS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF
CABO SAN LAZARO. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW
SWELL ARE ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 3 TO 4 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, AND 3 FT OR LESS IN THE NORTHERN GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC DISCUSSED ABOVE, MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT, WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS IN THE CENTRAL
GULF OF CALIFORNIA CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE THROUGH FRI
NIGHT. WINDS MAY INCREASE BRIEFLY TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE SAT AND SAT NIGHT DUE TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE, LARGE NW SWELL OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST TO 110W THROUGH TODAY,
DECAYING THEREAFTER. SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL BUILD SEAS TO ROUGH
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING THU, THEN SUBSIDING BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER SET OF LARGE NW SWELL MAY IMPACT THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
ACTIVE CONVECTION IS ALONG AND OFFSHORE THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA
AND ECUADOR SOUTH OF 06N AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. MODERATE OFFSHORE
WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF PANAMA, WHILE
THE LACK OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT ELSEWHERE IS ALLOWING FOR LIGHT
TO GENTLE VARIABLE AS DEPICTED AN OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE DATA PASS. SEAS ARE 6 FT OR LESS OVER THESE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION WILL
BECOME NE TO E AT FRESH TO STRONG WED MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, THEN PULSING TO STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WED NIGHT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH SEAS REACHING ROUGH WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LARGE
NW SWELL FROM A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT
WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS OFFSHORE GUATEMALA TODAY THROUGH
WED EVENING, THEN AGAIN THU AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST SAT NIGHT.
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL BUILD IN SW SWELL FROM
OFFSHORE ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WED, THEN NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, REACHING ROUGH CATEGORY OVER
MOST OF THE WATERS, EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL BRINGING WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 TO 11 FT COVERS
THE WATERS WEST OF A LINE FROM NEAR CABO SAN LAZARO TO 11N121W
TO 01N403W. SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL
ELSEWHERE. MEANWHILE, A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS.
WINDS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND
NORTH OF 03N TO AROUND 22N/23N SUPPORTS SPEEDS OF MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE OPEN WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE EXTENSIVE AFOREMENTIONED NW SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN WATERS
WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH LATE WED. A FRONT MAY MOVE INTO
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH MODERATE
TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS BEHIND IT, ALONG WITH SEAS OF 7 TO AROUND
10 FT IN LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL. ALSO, LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL PROMOTE ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF ABOUT 05N
STARTING LATER TODAY. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE IN THE WEEK AFTER ITS EASTERN PORTION
MERGES WITH SWELL GENERATED BY AN UPCOMING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
GALE EVENT. LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS MAY FRESHEN AGAIN WEST OF 130W
LATE FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION THERE.
AGUIRRE
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