636
AXPZ20 KNHC 082205
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE APR 08 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
SURGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS OF
MEXICO. THE RESULTANT TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
AND LOWER PRESSURE FOUND SOUTH OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING STRONG
GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS N THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION AS AGAIN
CONFIRMED VERIFIED BY AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS, AND BY A
COUPLE OF SHIP REPORTS. PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS WITH THESE WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY AT AROUND 16 FT. THE GALE- FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH WED AFTERNOON, THEN PULSE BACK TO GALE LATE WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU MORNING, THEN MORE STEADILY AND CONTINUOUSLY LATE THU
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN. SEAS MAY PEAK TO AROUND 17 FT AGAIN BY
EARLY SAT. PLEASE REFER TO THE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/ MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN
COLOMBIA NEAR 08N75W TO ALONG THE COAST NEAR 05.5N76W. AN ITCZ
SEGMENT IS ANALYZED FROM 04.5N92W TO 03N104W. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH IS TO THE WEST FROM 07N109W TO THE EQUATOR AT 126W.
ANOTHER ITCZ SEGMENT IS ANALYZED ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 126W
AND 137W BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
109W-120W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
SEEN WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 90W-94W, AND WITHIN
120 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 101W-104W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
AN ONGOING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING AS WELL AS GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENT OVER THE WATERS WEST OF MEXICO WHILE
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SOUTHWARD TO ACROSS
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE RESULTANT GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR
GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO, OUTSIDE OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION. A SET OF LARGE NW SWELL PRODUCING
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 9 FT IS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF
CABO SAN LAZARO. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW
SWELL ARE ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 3 TO 4 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, AND 3 FT OR LESS IN THE NORTHERN GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC DISCUSSED ABOVE, MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WATERS
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER
ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WINDS MAY INCREASE
BRIEFLY TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE SAT AND SAT NIGHT DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MEANWHILE, LARGE NW SWELL OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL
SLOWLY DECAY THROUGH WED, AT WHICH TIME THE SWELL WILL BE
CONFINED TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS TO ROUGH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
STARTING THU, THEN SUBSIDE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER SET OF
LARGE NW SWELL MAY IMPACT THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THIS
WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
WINDS OVER THESE WATERS ARE PRESENTLY MOSTLY LIGHT TO GENTLE IN
SPEEDS ALONG WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 FT OR LESS. HIGHER WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL GENERATED FROM THE PRESENT
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT ARE OVER THE WESTERN MOST
OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 07N TO NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND
ECUADOR.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION
WILL BECOME NE TO E AT FRESH TO STRONG WED MORNING DIMINISHING TO
FRESH SPEEDS IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN PULSE TO STRONG TO NEAR
GALE-FORCE STARTING WED NIGHT, WITH SEAS BECOMING ROUGH ALONG
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LARGE NW SWELL FROM A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE-FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS OFFSHORE GUATEMALA THROUGH
WED EVENING, THEN AGAIN THU AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST SAT NIGHT.
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL BUILD IN SW SWELL FROM
OFFSHORE ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WED, THEN NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, REACHING ROUGH CATEGORY OVER MOST OF
THE WATERS, EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL BRINGING WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 TO 10 FT IS
OVER THE WATERS WEST OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 13N117W TO
03.4S120W. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL
ARE ELSEWHERE.
ELSEWHERE. MEANWHILE, A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS.
WINDS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND
NORTH OF 03N TO AROUND 22N/23N SUPPORTS SPEEDS OF MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE OPEN WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE EXTENSIVE AFOREMENTIONED NW SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN WATERS
WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH LATE WED. A FRONT MAY MOVE INTO
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH MODERATE
TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS BEHIND IT, ALONG WITH SEAS OF 7 TO
10 FT IN LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL. ALSO, LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL INDUCE ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF ABOUT 05N
STARTING LATER TODAY. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE IN THE WEEK AFTER ITS EASTERN PORTION
MERGES WITH SWELL GENERATED BY AN UPCOMING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
GALE EVENT. LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS MAY FRESHEN AGAIN WEST OF 130W
LATE FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION THERE.
AGUIRRE
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