777
AXPZ20 KNHC 082239 AAA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE APR 08 2025
UPDATED REMAINDER OF THE AREA FORECAST
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2215 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
SURGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS OF
MEXICO. THE RESULTANT TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
AND LOWER PRESSURE FOUND SOUTH OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING STRONG
GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS N THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION AS AGAIN
CONFIRMED VERIFIED BY AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS, AND BY A
COUPLE OF SHIP REPORTS. PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS WITH THESE WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY AT AROUND 16 FT. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH WED AFTERNOON, THEN PULSE BACK TO GALE FORCE LATE WED
NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AGAIN LEADING
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
REGION FROM LATE THU NIGHT TO EARLY ON SUN. SEAS MAY PEAK TO
AROUND 17 FT BY EARLY SAT. PLEASE REFER TO THE THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE: HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/ MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN
COLOMBIA NEAR 08N75W TO ALONG THE COAST NEAR 05.5N76W. AN ITCZ
SEGMENT IS ANALYZED FROM 04.5N92W TO 03N104W. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH IS TO THE WEST FROM 07N109W TO THE EQUATOR AT 126W.
ANOTHER ITCZ SEGMENT IS ANALYZED ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 126W
AND 137W BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
109W-120W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
SEEN WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 90W-94W, AND WITHIN
120 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 101W-104W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
ONGOING GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS WELL AS
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENT OVER THE WATERS WEST OF MEXICO WHILE A
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD TO ACROSS
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE RESULTANT GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO,
OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
6 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA. LATEST
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA, WHERE WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 3 FT OR LESS.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AS DISCUSSED ABOVE, MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
WATERS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER
ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WINDS MAY INCREASE
BRIEFLY TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE SAT AND SAT NIGHT DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MEANWHILE, LARGE NW SWELL OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL
SLOWLY DECAY THROUGH WED, AT WHICH TIME THE SWELL WILL BE
CONFINED TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS TO ROUGH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
STARTING THU, THEN SUBSIDE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER SET
OF LARGE NW SWELL MAY IMPACT THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THIS
WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
WINDS OVER THESE WATERS ARE PRESENTLY MOSTLY LIGHT TO GENTLE IN
SPEEDS, EXCEPT WEST OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION AND OVER THE
WATERS WEST OF GUATEMALA, WHERE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA
INDICATES GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 09N TO 13N
BETWEEN 87W AND 90W. WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THESE WATERS ARE 6 FT OR
LESS, HOWEVER, HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL
GENERATED FROM THE PRESENT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT ARE
OVER THE WESTERN MOST OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 07N TO NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND
ECUADOR.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION
WILL BECOME NE TO E AT FRESH TO STRONG WED MORNING DIMINISHING TO
FRESH SPEEDS IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN PULSE TO STRONG TO NEAR
GALE-FORCE STARTING WED NIGHT, WITH SEAS BECOMING ROUGH ALONG
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LARGE NW SWELL FROM A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE-FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS OFFSHORE GUATEMALA THROUGH
WED EVENING, THEN AGAIN THU AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST SAT NIGHT.
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL BUILD IN SW SWELL FROM
OFFSHORE ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WED, THEN NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, REACHING ROUGH CATEGORY OVER MOST OF
THE WATERS, EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
UPDATED
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB IS ANALYZED NORTH OF THE AREA AT
32N129W. ASSOCIATED BROAD RIDGING COVERS THESE WATERS.
THE RELATED GRADIENT IS GENERALLY MAINTAINING MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST FROM 09N TO 23N WEST OF ABOUT 120W.
LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL BRINGING WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 TO 10 FT IS OVER
THE WATERS WEST OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 13N117W TO 03.4S120W.
SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL ARE ELSEWHERE.
WINDS ARE OF MODERATE SPEEDS OR LIGHTER OVER THE REST OF THE
WATERS WEST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE EXTENSIVE AFOREMENTIONED NW SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN WATERS
WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH WED NIGHT. LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERIC SWELL HAS RECENTLY BEGUN TO INDUCE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8
TO 9 FT OVER THE WATERS FROM 03.4S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 111W
AND 120W. LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE IN THE
WEEK AFTER ITS EASTERN PORTION MERGES WITH SWELL GENERATED BY AN
UPCOMING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT. LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS
MAY FRESHEN AGAIN WEST OF 130W BEGINNING FRI NIGHT AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
THERE, AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA, FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLE
WAVE HEIGHTS OF AROUND 8 TO 10 FT.
AGUIRRE
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