824
AXPZ20 KNHC 090109
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED APR 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0040 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
SURGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS OF
MEXICO. THE RESULTANT TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
AND LOWER PRESSURE THAT EXISTS SOUTH OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING
STRONG GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE TEHUANTEPEC. PEAK WAVE
HEIGHTS WITH THESE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT AROUND 16 FT. THE GALE-
FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BRIEFLY WED AFTERNOON, THEN
PULSE BACK TO GALE-FORCE LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN
THE GRADIENT AGAIN LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE-FORCE WINDS
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION FROM LATE THU NIGHT TO EARLY ON
SUN THEN FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE THEREAFTER. SEAS MAY PEAK TO
AROUND 17 FT BY EARLY SAT. PLEASE REFER TO THE THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/ MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 04N77W TO
06N87W TO 05N90W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N90W TO 10N109W TO
06N120W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE WEST DISRUPTING
THE ITCZ, EXTENDING FROM 06N120W TO 00N126W. THE NEXT ITCZ
SEGMENT EXTENDS FROM THE EQUATOR AT 129W TO 136W, CONTINUING
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W, FROM 02N TO 06.5N
BETWEEN 84W AND 88W, FROM 00N TO 11N BETWEEN 90W AND 123W, AND
FROM 00N TO 03.4S BETWEEN 99W AND 108W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
ONGOING GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS WELL AS
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENT OVER THE WATERS WEST OF MEXICO WHILE A
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD TO ACROSS
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE RESULTANT GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA NORTHWARD WHILE LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
MEXICO, OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION. WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE 6 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND 4 TO 6 FT
IN OLD MIXED SW AND NW SWELLS EAST OF 110W AND WEST OF THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, SEAS ARE 3 FT OR
LESS.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AS DISCUSSED ABOVE, MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WATERS
THROUGH WED MORNING. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE
AND OTHERWISE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WINDS MAY INCREASE BRIEFLY TO
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE SAT AND
SAT NIGHT DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA MAY INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG SUN NIGHT
NEAR THE FEATURE. MEANWHILE, LARGE NW SWELL OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL SLOWLY DECAY THROUGH WED, AT WHICH TIME THE
SWELL WILL BE CONFINED TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS TO ROUGH FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH STARTING THU, THEN SUBSIDE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER
SET OF LARGE NW SWELL MAY IMPACT THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THIS
WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
WINDS OVER THESE WATERS ARE PRESENTLY MOSTLY LIGHT TO GENTLE IN
SPEEDS, EXCEPT WEST OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION WHERE WINDS
ARE LOCALLY MODERATE. SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT OVER THE FAR OUTER
WATERS OF WESTERN GUATEMALA DUE TO AN ONGOING GALE-FORCE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE FROM THE
WATERS OFFSHORE COLOMBIA NORTHWESTWARD, AND 4 TO 6 FT OFFSHORE
ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION WILL
BECOME NE TO E AT FRESH TO STRONG WED MORNING DIMINISHING TO
FRESH SPEEDS IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN PULSE TO STRONG TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE STARTING WED NIGHT, WITH SEAS BECOMING ROUGH ALONG WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, EXCEPT PULSING TO FRESH IN THE GULF OF PANAMA SAT NIGHT.
LARGE NW SWELL FROM A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE-FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS OFFSHORE GUATEMALA THROUGH
WED EVENING, THEN AGAIN THU AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL BUILD IN
SW SWELL FROM OFFSHORE ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WED,
THEN NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, REACHING ROUGH
CATEGORY OVER MOST OF THE WATERS, EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY AND SLIGHTLY SUBSIDE
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANALYZED JUST NORTH OF 30N. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE FOUND FROM NEAR 04N TO 28N BETWEEN
120W AND 140W. WINDS ARE MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT IN MERGING SW
AND NW SWELL WEST OF 115W, AND MAINLY SW SWELL SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR AND WEST OF 100W. SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE EXTENSIVE AFOREMENTIONED NW SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN WATERS
WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH WED NIGHT. LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERIC SWELL WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD SUPPORTING
CONTINUED SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF 20N WED
NIGHT, THEN VERY GRADUALLY DECAYING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, A PROLONGED GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT WILL SEND ASSOCIATED NE SWELLS WELL
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOURCE REGION TOWARD THE CENTRAL WATERS MIXING
WITH THE SW AND NW SWELL. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
JUST SOUTHEAST OF 30N140W THU WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND
BUILDING NW SWELL BEHIND IT. THAT SWELL WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS
TO 7 TO 10 FT, MAINLY NORTH OF 23N OR SO THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WINDS MAY FRESHEN WEST OF 130W BEGINNING FRI NIGHT AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
LEWITSKY
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