185
AXPZ20 KNHC 090715
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED APR 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0640 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
SURGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS OF
MEXICO. THE RESULTANT TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
AND LOWER PRESSURE THAT EXISTS SOUTH OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING
STRONG GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE TEHUANTEPEC PER RECENT
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA WHICH SHOWED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 KT.
PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS WITH THESE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT AROUND 16 FT.
THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BRIEFLY THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN PULSE BACK TO GALE-FORCE LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THU. ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AGAIN LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND
OF GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION FROM LATE
THU EVENING TO EARLY ON SUN, POSSIBLY DIMINISHING BELOW GALE-
FORCE FOR SEVERAL HOURS EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO THEN BE FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE THEREAFTER. SEAS
MAY PEAK TO AROUND 16 FT AGAIN BY EARLY SAT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE BORDER OF COLOMBIA AND
PANAMA AT 08.5N77W TO 03.5N99W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM SOUTHWEST OF THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION NEAR
11.5N106.5W TO 06N113W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N113W TO 04N126W
TO 00N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
02S TO 08N BETWEEN 90W AND 105W, AND FROM 06.5N TO 13N BETWEEN
98W AND 112W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
ONGOING GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS WELL AS
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENT OVER THE WATERS WEST OF MEXICO WHILE A
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD TO ACROSS
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE RESULTANT GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA NORTHWARD PER RECENT ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER DATA, WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO, OUTSIDE OF THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 7 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL
OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND 4 TO 7 FT IN OLD MIXED SW AND NW
SWELLS EAST OF 110W AND WEST OF THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, SEAS ARE 3 FT OR LESS.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AS DISCUSSED ABOVE, MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WATERS
THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE
AND OTHERWISE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WINDS MAY INCREASE BRIEFLY TO
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE SAT AND
SAT NIGHT DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA MAY INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG SUN NIGHT
NEAR THE FEATURE. MEANWHILE, LARGE NW SWELL OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL SLOWLY DECAY THROUGH TODAY, AT WHICH TIME
THE SWELL WILL BE CONFINED TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS TO ROUGH FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING THU, THEN SUBSIDE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER SET OF LARGE NW SWELL MAY IMPACT THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE PRESENT NEAR THE GULFS OF FONSECA,
PAPAGAYO, AND PANAMA, WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT OVER THE FAR
OUTER WATERS OF WESTERN GUATEMALA DUE TO AN ONGOING GALE-FORCE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE
FROM THE WATERS OFFSHORE COLOMBIA NORTHWESTWARD, EXCEPT 4 TO 7 FT
OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR AND EASTERN GUATEMALA, AND 4 TO 6 FT
OFFSHORE ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION WILL
BECOME NE TO E AT FRESH TO STRONG BY AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING,
DIMINISHING TO FRESH SPEEDS IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN PULSE TO
STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE STARTING TONIGHT, WITH SEAS BECOMING
ROUGH ALONG WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORES THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, EXCEPT PULSING TO FRESH IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA SAT NIGHT. LARGE NW SWELL FROM A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE-
FORCE GAP WIND EVENT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS OFFSHORE
GUATEMALA THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN AGAIN THU AFTERNOON THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ELSEWHERE
WILL BUILD IN SW SWELL FROM OFFSHORE ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS TODAY, THEN NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
REACHING ROUGH CATEGORY OVER MOST OF THE WATERS, EXCEPT IN THE
LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY AND SLIGHTLY
SUBSIDE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANALYZED JUST NORTH OF 30N. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE FOUND FROM NEAR 04N TO 29N BETWEEN
120W AND 140W. WINDS ARE MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT IN MERGING SW
AND NW SWELL WEST OF 110W, AND 8 TO 10 FT IN MAINLY SW SWELL
SOUTH OF ABOUT 02N AND WEST OF 98W. SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE EXTENSIVE AFOREMENTIONED ROUGH NW SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN WATERS
WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH TONIGHT. LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERIC SWELL WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD SUPPORTING
CONTINUED SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF 20N TONIGHT,
THEN VERY GRADUALLY DECAYING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, A PROLONGED GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE-
FORCE GAP WIND EVENT WILL SEND ASSOCIATED NE SWELLS WELL
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOURCE REGION TOWARD THE CENTRAL WATERS MIXING
WITH THE SW AND NW SWELL.
LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE JUST SOUTHEAST OF 30N140W
THU WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND BUILDING NW SWELL BEHIND IT.
THAT SWELL WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS TO 7 TO 10 FT, MAINLY NORTH
OF 23N OR SO THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS MAY FRESHEN WEST
OF 130W BEGINNING FRI NIGHT AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
LEWITSKY
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